After such a poor start to our weekend boat and beach season, it feels like summer is just getting into swing at the Jersey Shore. It might be hard to believe but the July 12-13 weekend marked the halfway point between Memorial Day and Labor Day. With six more weekends left to go until the season closes and “Locals Summer” begins, let’s look at the past and future of our weather for the coast.
Jersey Shore weather so far
Summer weekends in 2025 were a bad apple from the start. The cumulative grade point average through July 12-13 is 2.6. That’s a C-plus. In the eight years I’ve done the report card, it’s the worst start on record, and it’s not particularly close, either.
The issue was the weekends from Memorial Day to June 13-15. In order, the letter grades were a C+, D+, C+ and D+. The reason for these gloomy, cooler weekends is part bad weather luck, and part science.
The jet stream, the river of air between 25,000 to 40,000 feet above sea level that separates two air masses, sat right over the Mid-Atlantic. Kinks in the jet stream, called Rossby Waves, created areas of lower pressure. They take roughly a week to pass around the Earth. For us, they fell on the weekends for that spell. Furthermore, the hot and humid weather we all think of doesn’t usually settle in until mid-June. The combination of all of this led to a summer start of poor weather weekends.
That being said, the ever important dry and warm weather for our shore economy was present during the middle of the week early in the season. That may have drawn more people to the shore than usual on those quiet, early June days.
Once we hit June 20-22, the report card was between a “B” and an “A.” That “A” occurred right over the Fourth of July weekend. I was across the pond in Scotland and Ireland then, but from what I saw online and heard from people, it was the best Independence Day weather weekend in years. We had plenty of sunshine, dew points in the refreshing 50s and decently dry 60s, plus no rain. It made up for lost time early in the season.
The two big weather stories of the summer so far were the extreme heat June 21-26. Then the severe weather on July 8-9.
Atlantic City International Airport reached 102 degrees for two days on June 24-25, the longest 100-degree or greater streak since 2011. On June 23, it tied a record high of 98 degrees, then set new records with the 102-degree days, smashing old records of 99°F and 96°F.
Sen. Frank S. Farley State Marina in Atlantic City hit 93 degrees on June 23, breaking a 1909 record, and tied a 2002 record of 95 degrees on June 24. Both locations also set record high nighttime temperatures. Despite starting off with cool weekends, this summer has been a sizzler.
Since climatological summer began on June 1, it has been the fifth hottest at Atlantic City Marina (records back to 1874), Atlantic City International Airport (records back to 1958) and Estell Manor (records back to 1964) through July 13. These numbers, courtesy of the Southeast Regional Climate Center, part of the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, are over two degrees above the average.
Most of the heat was driven by the overnight low temperatures, which are the warmest on record for Estell Manor and Atlantic City International Airport.
Two weeks later, multiple nights of severe weather struck.
On July 8, a tornado warning was issued for Burlington, Ocean, and Monmouth counties. Storms caused downed wires in New Egypt (Ocean County) and fallen trees in Lakewood (Ocean County).
On July 9, another storm hit, with a tornado warning for parts of Atlantic and Ocean counties from 10:57 p.m. to 11:30 p.m. Winds hit 58 mph at Cape May-Lewes Ferry and 42 mph in Surf City. A flash flood warning covered the whole coast from Sandy Hook to Cape May, too. Thankfully, no confirmed tornados were seen at the Jersey Shore.
The other story since July began is the warm waters. Ocean water temperatures have been in the 70s for most of the month, and in the mid to upper 70s over the July 12-13 weekend. Consider the average water temperature this time of the year is in the upper 60s, and it’s been a treat. It’s also the complete opposite of last summer, where upwelling kept the ocean icy until early August.
What’s the forecast for the rest of summer?
Expect more muggier-than-average conditions for the rest of July. That means dew points in the sticky low 70s or oppressive upper 70s.
In terms of temperatures, I expect more of what we’ve seen this summer for the rest of the month. Temperatures will continue to be above average but driven mainly by the balmy minimum temperatures. Average morning minimum temperatures are in the low 70s in the beach towns and upper 60s inland.
We’ll likely have another inland heat wave (three or more days of 90-degree-or-greater heat) inland this month, perhaps two.
However, that’s typical for us. I don’t see a repeat of the 100s we had in late June.
For August, I’m pleasantly surprised to see particularly good computer model agreement that rainfall stays about average. It’s actually crazy. Models usually differ slightly, but they are steadfast in dry weather in eastern New England and wet weather in the Appalachian Mountains. Average means eight to nine days of the month with wet weather.
In terms of temperatures, there’s also exceptionally good agreement that the shore counties stay a little bit below the average. Yes, if you’re tired of the summer heat, you should be in for a treat. Don’t expect autumn-like 60s for highs. However, less daytime highs in the 90s sound like a good bet at this time. Later in the month would start to see that hint of crispness in the air.
The rain and temperatures are connected. Assuming the computer models are correct, high pressure would lock in offshore of Maine or Nova Scotia, Canada. Since high pressure spins clockwise, that would mean an onshore wind for much of the month.
That would bring the relatively cooler air from the ocean. At the same time, the ocean waters in the pleasant 70s should continue. East winds shut off the cold upwelling that makes us shiver in the water on the hottest days.
New Jersey’s hurricane season outlook
So far, the state has been tropical cyclone free. Hopefully, we will keep it that way.
According to Colorado State University’s hurricane forecast update on July 9, New Jersey has a 26% chance of a tropical storm being within 50 miles of the coast, with a 8% chance of a hurricane.
That’s a small drop from the initial outlook in April and near the 1880-2020 average.
Still, it’s always good to be hurricane ready.
Have a NOAA Weather Radio. You can buy one easily online. Make sure your phone can receive weather alerts in an emergency.
As we saw in the Texas floods, getting the alerts from the National Weather Service is a matter of life and death sometimes. Also, have a go bag ready with essentials in case you need to evacuate.
Joe Martucci, a Certified Broadcast Meteorologist and Digital Meteorologist, is the President and Director of Meteorology for Cup A Joe Weather and Drone. You can connect with him at cupajoe.live.
