By Sarah Fertsch
After a winter filled with snowstorms, icy roads and frigid temperatures, South Jersey residents may be wondering whether it’s time to stock up on rock salt and dust off their snow shovels.
The good news, for those who prefer mild weather, is early forecasts suggest Atlantic and Cape May counties could experience a warmer-than-average winter. However, that doesn’t necessarily mean a snow-free season.
According to the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA), the winter of 2026–27 is expected to bring above-normal temperatures to much of the eastern United States, along with increased chances for precipitation along the East Coast. A powerful El Niño weather pattern could also influence the region’s winter storms, potentially creating the conditions for significant snowfall if cold air arrives at just the right time.
The result could be a winter marked by alternating mild spells, rain, chilly temperatures and occasional snowstorms rather than months of persistent cold.
A warmer, wetter winter ahead?
NOAA’s winter outlook, released Oct. 15, favors above-average temperatures across much of the Northeast and Mid-Atlantic from December through February.
For Atlantic and Cape May counties, that means the season may feel milder overall, although occasional cold snaps and freezing temperatures remain likely.
At Atlantic City International Airport in Egg Harbor Township, the average temperature during the three winter months is approximately 36 degrees Fahrenheit, according to National Weather Service climate records. Average temperatures typically hover in the 30s, with daytime highs frequently reaching the 40s and overnight lows falling below freezing.
An above-normal winter would mean the three-month average exceeds that historical benchmark, not necessarily that every day is unusually warm.
Precipitation is another important part of the forecast. NOAA expects a greater likelihood of wetter-than-normal conditions along the East Coast, potentially bringing more opportunities for coastal storms.
However, more precipitation doesn’t automatically translate into more snow. When temperatures are too warm, Atlantic and Cape May counties could see rain, sleet or a wintry mix instead.
That distinction is particularly important for shore communities such as Atlantic City, Ocean City, Wildwood and Cape May, where the nearby Atlantic Ocean can moderate temperatures and complicate snowfall forecasts. Just a few degrees can separate a picturesque snowfall from a cold, soaking rain.
How does this compare to last winter?
Residents who spent last winter clearing driveways and navigating snow-covered streets might welcome the possibility of a milder season.
The winter of 2025–26 was notably colder and snowier than average throughout New Jersey. According to the Office of the New Jersey State Climatologist at Rutgers University, the state experienced below-normal winter temperatures and above-normal snowfall.
Atlantic City International Airport recorded its coldest winter since 2014–15, while temperatures along the Atlantic City waterfront were the coldest since the winter of 1993–94, according to meteorologist Joe Martucci’s review of the season.
Snowfall totals were equally impressive. Woodbine in Cape May County recorded approximately 25 inches for the season, while Hamilton Township in Atlantic County reported 29.4 inches. Atlantic City International Airport recorded approximately 26 inches of snow, well above its typical seasonal average of roughly 17 inches.
For comparison, Atlantic City’s airport recorded just 13.9 inches during the 2024–25 snow season. The 2025–26 season nearly doubled that amount.
The upcoming winter could be substantially different, although forecasters caution that one or two significant storms can change the seasonal totals dramatically.
What does El Niño mean for South Jersey?
One of the biggest wild cards in this year’s forecast is El Niño, a naturally occurring climate pattern involving unusually warm ocean temperatures in the tropical Pacific.
Although the Pacific Ocean is thousands of miles away, changes in its temperature can influence atmospheric circulation and storm tracks across North America.
This year’s El Niño is particularly powerful. In a Nov. 5 interview published by Rutgers University, New Jersey State Climatologist John Krasting explained that the ongoing event could become one of the strongest on record.
The phenomenon typically strengthens the subtropical jet stream, a band of fast-moving air that carries warm, moisture-rich weather systems across the southern United States and toward the East Coast.
For South Jersey, this could mean more opportunities for coastal storms, including nor’easters.
But whether those storms bring snow or rain depends on the availability of cold air.
A coastal storm moving up the Atlantic Ocean could produce heavy snow across inland Atlantic County while bringing mostly rain to barrier-island communities. Alternatively, if sufficiently cold air settles over the region, a powerful nor’easter could blanket both counties with substantial snowfall.
Krasting also warned that increased coastal storm activity could bring more rainfall, flooding and beach erosion to New Jersey.
Those concerns are particularly relevant following the powerful September 2026 nor’easter, which caused significant beach and dune erosion along portions of the Jersey Shore.
For communities already vulnerable to coastal flooding, storm surge and beach erosion, a wetter winter could create challenges even without significant snowfall.
So, should South Jersey expect another snowy winter?
For residents hoping for a repeat of last winter’s snow-covered landscapes, the early forecast offers mixed news.
A warmer-than-average winter appears more likely than another season of prolonged Arctic cold, but the potential for significant coastal storms means that accumulating snow remains a possibility.
The biggest question is whether cold air and moisture will arrive at the same time.
Even if the region experiences fewer snow days overall, one powerful nor’easter could still produce enough snowfall to make the season memorable.
It’s also worth remembering that seasonal forecasts describe overall weather patterns, not specific storms. NOAA does not issue seasonal snowfall predictions because individual snow events generally cannot be forecast reliably more than about a week in advance.
The best approach may be to prepare for a little bit of everything: mild afternoons, rainy nor’easters, icy mornings and perhaps a few opportunities to build a snowman.
