By Meteorologist Joe Martucci
Both Colorado State University and the National Hurricane Center in Miami, Fla., put out their most active Atlantic Ocean hurricane forecasts in their histories.
Both organizations did tweak their forecasts a bit. However, both are still at record highs.
Colorado State University forecasted 23 named storms, 12 hurricanes and six major hurricanes, rated Category 3 or greater. That was from its Aug. 4 update.
Meanwhile, the National Hurricane Center forecasted between 17 to 24 named storms in its Aug. 8 update. Of those, eight to 13 become hurricanes, with four to seven of those major hurricanes.
As of when I’m writing this, Aug. 26, our statistics are: five named storms, three hurricanes and one major hurricane.
To be fair, the 2024 season is still ahead of schedule.
Our third hurricane of the year, Ernesto, became one on Aug. 14. That’s three and a half weeks earlier than the climatological average.
Hurricane Beryl, in late June and early July, became a major, Category 3 hurricane on June 30. That’s nearly two months ahead of schedule. Plus, it broke the record for the earliest category four as well as five storm in recorded history. That dates back to the mid-1800s. It was a big deal.
Again, 2024 is still more active than a typical hurricane season. Don’t get me wrong. However, it hasn’t been as active as thought this late in the season. Let’s dive into what’s going on and if the rest of the season will live up to the forecasts.
Why hasn’t it been even more active?
Let’s start off by being thankful that no hurricanes or tropical storms have impacted New Jersey this season. I don’t wish for any to hit us here and if it can stay that way for the rest of the season, that would be great.
As we go into August, many of our tropical systems usually start off as clusters of thunderstorms off the West Coast of Africa, near the Cape Verde Islands. That’s around 15 degrees north latitude. From there, the warm waters of the Atlantic develop the storms into hurricanes.
However, this month, those clusters of thunderstorms in West Africa gained latitude as it reached the coast. Instead of being near the Cape Verde Islands, they’re further north, near 20 to 25 degrees north latitude.
When these reach the Atlantic Ocean, the water is below the near 80 degrees needed to sustain hurricane development. We have the relatively cool Canary Current to thank for this. So these storms fizzle out, never becoming tropical. Ryan Maue, owner of Weather Trader and a tropical expert, has stayed on this phenomenon.
Furthermore, the National Hurricane Center reports that the dust from the Saharan dust was more prevalent than usual in mid-summer. That prevents storms from developing, too. It’s just too dry for massive amounts of moisture to be in the air.
Closer to the United States, tropical systems usually form off of strong cold fronts that pass through the Deep South. However, being in August, this is rare. So, that explains our lack of storms, relative to predictions.
It Should Get More Active Soon
Hurricane season usually peaks on Sept. 10. with 90% of our tropical systems happening after Aug. 1, on average.
So, there is still a lot of time for these storms to develop.
The ingredients are there for an active fall. Sea-surface temperatures in the Atlantic Ocean and Caribbean Sea, which help storms grow, are much warmer than usual. 2024 is on track to have the highest heat levels in the Main Development Region of the tropics, according to the University of Miami.
Wind shear, or change in wind direction with height, is lower this year. Tropical systems like low wind shear environments. In simple terms, wind shear distracts storms.
Furthermore, the trade winds in the Atlantic Ocean are weaker than average, which creates a better environment for hurricanes to form.
In addition, the monsoon season in West Africa will be stronger this fall. With less Saharan dust around, there should be more tropical storms in the Atlantic Ocean over the next three months. That is, as long as the thunderstorms move back to their usual starting point near the Cape Verde Islands instead of farther north.
Shore Summer Weekend Weather Report Card
Our second weekend between Memorial Day to Labor Day was an ‘A’ and so, too, is our second to last weekend before peak beach season ends. It was glorious from Friday to Sunday with sunshine, comfortable temperatures and a nice breeze.
That brings our summer 2024 grade point average back up to a 3.2. Depending on how Labor Day weekend goes, we’ll either place between second or sixth of the seven summers I’ve done this. Look for the final video late next week from Ocean City High School on the Shore Local Website and my social channels!
Rutgers Football Forecasts
I share Rutgers football forecast on my social media all season. You can check them out the night before the game if it’s in the afternoon, or on the day of the game if it’s in the evening.
If you follow me, you know I am a big Rutgers person. I graduated from there, have season tickets for the football games, and visit the school a few times each year to talk.
I believe this will be a good season for the Scarlet Knights. I predict they’ll win 7 games and lose 5. They’ll then win a bowl game, making their final record 8-5.
Joe earned his Meteorology Degree from Rutgers University. He is approved by the American Meteorological Society as a Certified Broadcast Meteorologist and Certified Digital Meteorologist, the only one in the state with both. He’s won 10 New Jersey Press Association Awards. You can find him on social media @joemartwx
