By Sarah Fertsch
A strengthening nor’easter is expected to make for a rough weekend along the Jersey Shore, bringing damaging wind gusts, periods of heavy rain, coastal flooding and dangerous surf from Friday evening through Sunday.
As of Friday morning, Sept. 25, the storm’s track had shifted close enough to the coast to increase concerns for South Jersey, particularly Cape May, Atlantic and Ocean counties. The National Weather Service warned that coastal flooding, strong winds, high surf and hazardous marine conditions could persist through much of the weekend.
The good news for anyone hoping to finish errands or storm preparations Friday is that much of the daytime should remain relatively dry. The first raindrops are expected to reach the Jersey Shore Friday afternoon and evening, with conditions deteriorating as the storm strengthens offshore.
When will the storm arrive?
Friday morning through early afternoon: Expect mostly cloudy skies and increasingly gusty north winds. Along the southern Shore, winds could already gust around 35 to 40 mph. Rain chances remain relatively low through early afternoon.
After about 3 p.m. Friday: Rain chances begin increasing along Cape May County and other Shore communities. The National Weather Service gives Cape May and Wildwood a chance of rain beginning mainly after 3 p.m., although the more widespread rain should hold off until later.
Friday evening and overnight: Conditions are expected to noticeably worsen. North winds could gust as high as 55 mph in exposed coastal areas Friday night, with the strongest gusts near the immediate coast and over the water. Rain becomes more likely during the evening.
Saturday: Saturday is shaping up to be one of the stormiest periods at the Shore. Widespread rain is expected, and winds could remain around 30 to 35 mph, with gusts reaching 55 mph in exposed coastal areas.
Rain could continue through Saturday night while winds remain strong. Even where rainfall rates are not especially intense, persistent northeast and north winds will continue pushing water toward the coast and back bays.
Sunday: Rain and gusty winds are expected to continue through much of Sunday. The storm should gradually begin losing its grip Sunday evening, with conditions improving into Monday. Meteorologists expect the coastal storm to slowly lift northward and away from the region Sunday night into Monday morning.
Flooding may be the biggest concern
Coastal Flood Warnings and advisories are in effect for much of the New Jersey coastline. Forecasters expect significant tidal flooding near times of high tide, with widespread flooding of roads possible in vulnerable coastal and bayside communities.
Repeated high-tide cycles are particularly concerning because persistent onshore winds can prevent water from fully draining between tides. The flooding threat could also be amplified by higher astronomical tides.
The surf will remain dangerous. High surf and a high risk of rip currents are expected through the weekend, and forecasters have warned of significant beach erosion.
The National Weather Service is also warning mariners of extremely hazardous conditions. Coastal waters near Cape May could see north winds of 30 to 40 knots, gusts up to 55 knots and seas of 11 to 15 feet during the height of the storm.
Swimming and entering rough surf should be avoided.
How much rain could fall?
Rainfall amounts will vary considerably depending on exactly how close the storm tracks to the coastline.
Current National Weather Service forecasts indicate several periods of rain from Friday night through Sunday. Portions of the southern Shore could receive several inches before the storm pulls away, although exact totals will depend on the storm’s final track and the placement of the heaviest bands.
Localized poor-drainage flooding could occur where heavier rain overlaps with high tide.
Wind could bring power outages
Strong winds will also pose problems away from the immediate beachfront.
The National Weather Service warns that gusts could blow around unsecured objects, knock down tree limbs and cause isolated to scattered power outages. Driving may also become difficult, particularly for trucks, vans and other high-profile vehicles.
Residents should avoid parking beneath large trees or weak branches if possible and make sure phones and portable batteries are charged before the strongest winds arrive.
How to prepare for the nor’easter
With the worst conditions expected from Friday evening through Sunday, residents still have time Friday to prepare.
Bring patio furniture, umbrellas, trash cans, decorations and other lightweight outdoor items inside or secure them so they cannot become airborne. Charge phones, flashlights and battery packs in case of an outage, and make sure medications and other necessities are readily available.
Those living in flood-prone Shore communities should consider moving vehicles to higher ground before the next high-tide cycle rather than waiting until streets begin filling with water.
Drivers should never attempt to pass through a flooded roadway. Even familiar streets can become deeper than expected, and saltwater flooding can conceal curbs, potholes and other hazards.
Avoid the ocean and jetties throughout the storm. The combination of large breaking waves, dangerous rip currents and strong winds will make conditions unsafe even for experienced swimmers.
Finally, check the forecast frequently. With a slow-moving coastal storm, relatively small changes in the track can make a significant difference in wind, rainfall and flooding from one Shore community to another.
For South Jersey, this looks less like a quick burst of bad weather and more like a long, windy and waterlogged weekend. By Monday, however, forecasters expect the nor’easter to be pulling away, allowing the Shore to finally begin drying out.
