By Meteorologist Joe Martucci
Certified Broadcast Meteorologist
and Certified Digital Meteorologist
Even if you wish you lived in South Florida, far away from any winter weather, chances are the thought of snow on Christmas puts at least a small grin on your face.
A white Christmas and first night of Hanukkah (both are Dec. 25 this year) is hard to come by at the South Jersey Shore. That will be true this year as well, with generally mild weather expected around the holiday.
Even though Dec. 25 falls in the winter season, which starts on Dec. 21, the shortest day of the year, Christmas snow isn’t very common here. While the ocean keeps cooling down, storms bring warm air when they travel up the coast. This warm air makes it harder for snow to fall because it raises the temperature, making it rare for snow to fall on any day in December.
The technical definition of a white Christmas is an inch or more of snow on the ground on the day itself, according to the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration. So even if you were to measure a half inch of snow on Christmas Day, it wouldn’t qualify as a white Christmas.
If that definition sounds like a lump of coal in your stocking, meeting a cheerier definition that includes any measurable snow on Christmas Day is just as unlikely. There’s a 6% chance for both an inch or more of snow on the ground, or any measurable snow on Christmas Day at Atlantic City International Airport in Egg Harbor Township, according to NOAA.
Snowfall records at the Sen. Frank S. Farley State Marina in Atlantic City haven’t been taken since 1956. Back then, there was only a 7% chance of having at least 1 inch of snow on the ground, and a 3% chance of any snow at all. Even though the climate was cooler, a Dec. 25 snow was just as unlikely. Nowadays, right by the ocean, there’s actually a bit less chance of snow on holidays than in places farther away from the shore.
Our last official white Christmas at the South Jersey Shore was in 2009. Do you remember that one? I was a freshman at Rutgers University then. I still remember waking up at my parents’ house in Central Jersey, and seeing how bright Christmas morning was with the sun reflecting off the snow.
2009 and 2010 snowfalls
On Dec. 19-20, 2009, a powerful nor’easter buried New Jersey. It was a South Jersey special. Folsom in western Atlantic County picked up the most snow with 25.7 inches, according to the office of the New Jersey State Climatologist. Meanwhile, the typically snowier northwestern corner of the state saw less than a half foot.
The snowpack was so intense that even five days later, 5 inches of snow was reported on the ground at ACY Airport.
The last time we had measurable snow on Christmas Day was the following year. The Boxing Day Blizzard (my favorite snowstorm, by the way) began late on Dec. 25, 2010.
While less than an inch of snow fell on the holiday, 1 to 2 feet of snow fell in every Jersey Shore county – 20.1 inches of snow fell at ACY Airport as well as 16 inches in Seaville and Somers Point. This was an East Jersey special. More than 30 inches fell farther north in Ocean and Monmouth counties.
Either way, though, that was still more than a decade ago. Some of us saw flurries on Christmas 2020, a wonderful way to brighten the mood during the depth of the COVID-19 pandemic, but that was it. The last time we had Christmas snow on the ground before that was 2000.
Even when it snowed on Christmas Day, official observations at ACY Airport and Atlantic City itself show that it was never more than an inch.
At the airport, the highest was 0.8 inches in 1962. When Atlantic City kept track of snow from 1893 to 1956, the highest was in 1902, at 0.9 inches. Even looking at other coastal weather reporting stations nearby, there was no snow after 1956 that was more than an inch either.
That doesn’t mean it’s been a brown Christmas with your dormant lawns and gardens in the winter chill. Between 35% to 37% of the holidays reported what I’ll call a green Christmas, with measurable rain. There’s roughly a 1-in-10 chance of a half inch or more of rain falling. In fact, we did that early on Dec. 25, 2020. This came with wind gusts in the 50s and 60s as a squall line passed through right after midnight.
If you’re looking for a white Christmas this year, snow has been plentiful in northern New England. That was expected, as noted in the Winter Outlook, as weak La Nina winters typically bring more snow to these parts.
White Christmas
in N.J. probability
On average, nowhere in New Jersey has a better than a 50/50 chance of a white Christmas. The closest is Sussex in the northwest corner of the state. Even that is a 38% chance, per NOAA.
The closest place to South Jersey to have more white Christmases than not are the higher elevations of the Poconos in Pennsylvania.
If you really want to see snow on Christmas every year, you should go to places like Lake Placid, N.Y., or the mountains in Vermont, New Hampshire, and Maine. These spots have an 85% or better chance of having a White Christmas.
So, while a white Christmas and Hanukkah is unlikely here, I hope this article puts your mind in the snowy, wintry spirit.
Happy Holidays to you, your family and friends. The shore really comes back to life during December, take advantage of it.
Joe earned his Meteorology Degree from Rutgers University. He is approved by the American Meteorological Society as a Certified Broadcast Meteorologist and Certified Digital Meteorologist, the only one in the state with both. He’s won 10 New Jersey Press Association Awards. You can find him on social media @joemartwx
