Weather
By Dan Skeldon
In four short months, we’ll be coming up on the ten year anniversary of Hurricane Sandy. Well actually, to be meteorologically correct, I should say Extratropical Storm Sandy, or maybe just Sandy to simplify things altogether. After all, Sandy wasn’t “officially” a hurricane when it made landfall in South Jersey in October of 2012. It was a Category 1 hurricane until one hour before landfall, and then it lost its tropical characteristics, at least according to the National Hurricane Center. (I’ve always believed it was a hurricane at landfall, and that years from now, history will agree. But that’s a topic for another column and another day).
Hurricanes are classified using the Saffir-Simpson scale, a method devised in the early 1970s that rates hurricanes based on wind speed, but only wind speed. A Category 1 storm has winds from 74 to 95mph, followed by a Category 2 from 96 to 110mph, and a Category 3 from 111 to 129mph. For the record, a Category 3 is likely the strongest storm that could ever hit South Jersey, given how far north we are and the cooler water off of our coast. However, higher up the scale, there are Category 4 (130-156mph) and Category 5 (157+mph) storms, and there has been a recent spike in landfalls of these stronger hurricanes over the last few years in the Southeastern United States.
On the surface, the Saffir-Simpson scale serves a solid purpose in ranking the destructive power of a hurricane based on its peak winds. After all, winds are the most advertised feature of a hurricane, and higher winds cause widespread damage.
But winds are not the only element of a hurricane capable of destruction. Water, both in the form of storm surges and heavy rainfall, can be just as or even more destructive than winds. And more people lose their lives from water than the wind when it comes to tropical systems.
Tropical Storm Allison hit Texas in 2001, dropped over 40 inches of rain and killed dozens. And it was only a Tropical Storm. Water, not wind.
Just last year, the remnants, or leftovers, of what was once Hurricane Ida zipped through Pennsylvania, New Jersey, and New York. And these mere remnants killed over 40 people, dropped 10+ inches of rain in a matter of hours, spawned powerful tornadoes, and caused 20 billion dollars in damage. Mostly water, not wind.
Let’s circle back to Sandy, “only” a Category 1 storm, at least concerning its winds. In reality, though, it brought the storm surge more typical of a Category 3 or 4 hurricane to North Jersey and New York City. Water, not wind.
What we need is an all-inclusive scale to rate tropical systems, one that takes into account the destructive power of wind, storm surge, and rainfall. And this scale shouldn’t only be used for hurricanes. Instead, it should place a ranking on any system, tropical depression, tropical storm, hurricane, and even the remnants of a former tropical system. And on a related note, a storm, like Ida for instance, should keep its name if it’s going to remain destructive even after it is no longer tropical.
For better or worse, people tend to fixate on numbers. “Wow, it’s a Category 4 hurricane now!” “Oh, it’s weakened and now “only” a Category 1”, instead of fixating on the fact that it’s still a hurricane, if only with winds of 75 mph instead of 100 mph. Given this fixation, we should update our tropical system scale to numbers that truly capture the real impacts, from both wind and water, that any storm may deliver.
Name a storm, and it gets some media attention. Once that storm becomes a hurricane, the media attention grows. The more powerful the storm, the more attention it draws into its vortex. But once that storm “weakens” or loses its tropical characteristics or name, the attention fades, often much too quickly.
Hurricane forecasting has grown by leaps and bounds over the last few decades. But accurate forecasts aren’t worth as much if we don’t communicate the impacts of any approaching storm as clearly and effectively as possible. A new, modern scale would be a nice step forward.
Meteorologist Dan Skeldon has a degree in meteorology from Cornell University. He has forecasted the weather in South Jersey for the last 18 years, first on the former television station NBC40 and then on Longport Media radio. Dan has earned the American Meteorological Society Seal of Approval for Broadcast Meteorologists, and now does television broadcasts on WFMZ-TV in Pennsylvania’s Lehigh Valley.
