By Meteorologist Joe Martucci
Mark your calendars earlier than usual to explore peak fall foliage across the southern half of the state, according to an interview I did with the New Jersey Forest Service.
The combination of a dry spring and a record to near record rain-free September has and will play a major role in leaf peeping this season.
If you’re like me, you’ve probably seen a handful of trees turn into their oranges and reds already in the early to mid-part of the month. Fall foliage is a season that goes on for months. However, seeing this much color this early is unusual. It’s a sign of low soil moisture, preventing the roots to transport nutrients to the leaves.
And after our rain-bust last week – where the tropical moisture did not bring precipitation as planned – expanding drought will be the key role for the fall foliage season in the southern half of the state.
The perfect NJ fall foliage weather ingredients?
From the time the first green leaves sprout on the branches to when the last, crinkly brown leaf on the tree falls to the ground, there are four distinct ingredients that will bring the perfect fall foliage (note, we can group them into three ingredients, too, but I won’t for this story).
From April to June, you want precipitation to be above average. This gives the trees plenty of nutrients to provide for its growing foliage.
Then, during climatological summer, from June to August, you’re looking for no extremes. No extreme heat and no extreme cool downs, either. If there is, the trees become stressed out.
Once Locals’ Summer begins in September, to the time of peak leaf change, you’re looking for sunny days and cool nights to allow those vibrant fall hues to develop.
Once we reach peak foliage, you’re simply looking for no heavy precipitation or wind so the leaves won’t get ripped off the trees so early, and you have time to enjoy them.
The 1991-2020 peak fall foliage for inland South Jersey is late October, according to the mete-orologist led explorefall.com website. The Jersey Shore, as well as lower Cape May County, is early November.
For this story, we’ll use data for inland South Jersey, rather than the shore. While there are some beautiful fall sights at the beaches, the dense forests and majority of the trees are inland.
How wet was our growing season?
April through June was on the drier side. Inland South Jersey averaged 9.17 inches of precipitation during this time according to the Office of the New Jersey State Climatologist at Rutgers University. The climatological mean is 11.32 inches.
In other words, it was roughly 20% below average.
So, it wasn’t the best start to the season.
How moderate was our summer?
Consider this part a small victory if you’re looking for vibrant fall foliage this autumn. The New Jersey Forest Service noted that there wasn’t much extreme heat this summer.
However, there was one stretch of notably cool weather. The third week of August, from Aug. 20 – 23 felt more like late September than late August.
Morning lows were between 50 and 55 degrees inland, with 40s in Pine Barrens towns like Estell Manor, according to the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration. Highs were in the 70s, or low 80s at best. This is all below average.
That is what sparked the earlier than usual change in leaf color. However, what happened afterward only impacted the process more.
Has September had sunny days and cool nights?
The sun’s been shining all month long.
As of Sept. 19, 10 of the 19 days were classified as sunny at Atlantic City International Airport, according to the National Weather Service. Another three had at least 50% sunshine.
The nights have generally been cool. We’ll wind up with more than half of September with a low temperature in the 40s or 50s.
However, the lack of rain has overpowered this positive mark. Adding up rainfall at the time of this writing, with forecasts through the week of Sept. 23, month-to-date precipitation should still be more than 75% below average for many.
Can we expect no big storms during leaf drop?
The Climate Prediction Center has given the region a slight lean toward a wetter than average October. However, that could be a group of modest rains, with light winds. It could also be one or two severe storms with strong winds that rip the leaves off the trees.
In other words, it’s too early to tell.
2024 Fall Foliage Outlook, in detail
Adding up all of our ingredients, expect earlier and duller fall foliage this year. Peak fall foliage should arrive in the second or third week of October for inland South Jersey. That’s about two weeks ahead of schedule.
Being drier in the spring is okay as long as summer and fall can make up for it. While summer was wetter, September’s extremely dry weather is just too much for a full recovery to truly vibrant colors.
Furthermore, that autumnal third week of August accelerated the process of the fall foliage. Meaning, we needed that water and rain to come early in the month.
That being said, there will still be the oranges and reds. There will still be the crisp autumn air and there will still be wonderful leaf peeping spots like Bass River State Forest, Batsto and Belleplain State Forest.
I say take a few hours and enjoy the sights. Better to take in muted fall hues now than barren, brown trees later.
Joe earned his Meteorology Degree from Rutgers University. He is approved by the American Meteorological Society as a Certified Broadcast Meteorologist and Certified Digital Meteorologist, the only one in the state with both. He’s won 10 New Jersey Press Association Awards. You can find him on social media @joemartwx
