Weather
By Dan Skeldon
Welcome to second summer, or locals’ summer as it’s affectionately known according to many year-round residents. After all, there’s a lot to love about this time of year.
The ocean is still quite warm, in the low 70s at last check. The waves are often some of the best of the season, thanks to many offshore hurricanes that kick up the swell during the peak of the Atlantic hurricane season. Last week, FYI, we had Hurricane Larry to thank.
Of course, the air is still quite warm as well. Our average high temperature to start the month on September 1st is around 83 degrees, with an average overnight low around 63 degrees. By the end of the month on September 30th, we shave 10 degrees off of both.
It can still get hot, and here’s proof: 8 of the last 10 September have had at least one 90-degree day. And four times since 2015, highs have soared into the mid-90s at least once during September. Let’s not forget a late summer heatwave happens on occasion as well during September. And finally, this week reminds us that it can still get quite sticky this time of year, even if the heat and humidity combination usually doesn’t rise to mid-summer levels. The calendar says that fall doesn’t officially arrive this year until 3:21 pm on Wednesday, September 22nd, and summer intends on using its full allotment of time this year.
That’s becoming a more regular tradition over the past decade or so. You can call it what you will: global warming, climate change, natural variability, good or bad luck, depending on your weather point of view. But the fact is that 5 of the top 10 warmest Septembers ever recorded have occurred in the last 6 years, or since 2015. 90-degree days are becoming more common in September, and hints of fall are becoming a bit less common.
Have you noticed it too? It’s been a definite trend over the last decade or two, and as a lover of everything fall, I’ve found I had to be more patient waiting for a fall pattern to become established each year. Sure, just like Christmas decorations come out before Halloween, I saw pumpkin spice coffee and muffins out way too early this year. But while you can rush the fall flavors, it’s becoming increasingly difficult to rush fall weather.
It’s part of what are shifting seasons, even if those shifts are gradual for now. Summer seems to extend later into September, and occasionally into October. There have only been three days in October that have ever reached 90 degrees, and two of those three occurred in the last 15 years, one in 2007 and one in 2019 when we soared to 96 degrees! Fall is therefore delayed a bit many years of late, arriving more so in October, continuing through November, and may last into December, which is traditionally a winter month.
There’s a flip side to that as well on the other end, and that has to do with March. March has trended colder and snowier over the past decade or two, with 5 of the top 12 snowiest months of March on record occurring since the winter of 2007-2008. So yes, while winter starts later, it extends later into March, delaying spring as a result. And the whole cycle rinses and repeats each year.
Now every season and every year are different. And there’s no plan on changing the official start times of any season, as those equinoxes and solstices are based on astronomy, not meteorology. But based on personal observation from forecasting South Jersey weather over the last two decades combined with some of the statistics cited above, our traditional expectations for when to expect certain types of weather may have to shift due to our changing climate. Of course, further shifts are always possible, and two decades is hardly enough time to determine if these trends are significant or not. For now, though, it means you may have a better chance than usual to be enjoying the beach on Columbus Day weekend. But it also means the chance for snowy St. Patrick’s Days may be a little higher than you once remember.
Meteorologist Dan Skeldon has a degree in meteorology from Cornell University. He has forecasted the weather in South Jersey for the last 18 years, first on the former television station NBC40 and then on Longport Media radio. Dan has earned the American Meteorological Society Seal of Approval for Broadcast Meteorologists, and now does television broadcasts on WFMZ-TV in Pennsylvania’s Lehigh Valley.
