Thankfully, hurricane season has remained quiet. No major storms have made landfall in the United States, or really anywhere. By the numbers, this is a quieter-than-average year so far. However, don’t be lulled into complacency.
By late September, the Atlantic Hurricane Season typically reaches its 10th or 11th named storm on average. That would be the “J” or “K” named storm. That’s “Jerry” or “Karen” according to the World Meteorological Organization, which is the group that determines storm names.
Through Sept. 22 we’re only on Gabrielle, the seventh storm. She is expected to spin east of Bermuda, well away from the East Coast. New Jersey has seen elevated surf and a risk for rip currents. However, there are no direct impacts.
By the Sept. 27-28 weekend, two new named storms may develop. That would take us to the ninth named storm. That’s closer to average, but still on the quiet side.
Now is not the time to be lulled into a sense of security, though. The forecasts for a more-active-than-usual season still have time to come true.
Sixty percent of tropical activity occurs after Sept. 10 in the Atlantic Ocean, according to the National Hurricane Center, a government agency in Miami, Fla. But it came and went with a whimper. This has been one of only a handful of years when there were no active storms in the Atlantic Hurricane Basin during the season’s peak.
By late September there is still plenty of hurricane season to go. Sandy, you will recall, made landfall near Brigantine on Oct. 29, 2012. The hurricane season officially runs from June 1 to Nov. 30, so it’s a backloaded season.
Here’s a look at the latest hurricane forecasts from agencies I highly respect. These forecasts include what has already happened. Through Sept. 22 there have been seven named storms, two hurricanes and one major hurricane – Category 3, 4 or 5 storm.
National Hurricane Center (from Aug. 7):
- 13 to 18 named storms
- 5 to 9 hurricanes
- 2 to 5 major hurricanes
Colorado State University (from Aug. 6):
- 16 named storms
- 8 hurricanes
- 3 major hurricanes
United Kingdom Met Office (from Aug. 1):
- 16 named storms
- 6 hurricanes
- 4 major became
There’s also something called Accumulated Cyclone Energy (ACE). I like to use this, and you’ll see people using this more often in the future. ACE measures hurricane season energy by adding up storm strength and duration score as it’s going on.
Colorado State University, as well as the United Kingdom Met Office, issues forecasts for ACE. Both predict a 140-146 ACE index.
This is all at or just above average. These forecasts still predict that all the activity we’ve had since hurricane season started will be duplicated between now and when the season ends two months from now; other words, just as hurricane season usually goes.
Have your evacuation plan and get your go bag ready in case you need to leave. In the best case scenario, it will collect dust and stay dry during a quiet New Jersey hurricane season.
Joe Martucci, a Certified Broadcast Meteorologist and Digital Meteorologist, is the President and Director of Meteorology for Cup A Joe Weather and Drone. You can connect with him at cupajoe.live.
