Expect the 2025-2026 winter weather to be pretty similar to last winter. However, there’s enough support in the forecast to give snow lovers hope this season. My Jersey Shore friends, it’s that time of the year again – time for the winter forecast.
With the sun setting by 5 p.m., holiday decorations for sale at nearly every store and sweatshirt weather during the day, snow season is around the corner.
Before we get into predictions, here’s a few important notes to remember:
1. I don’t do my own winter forecasting. It takes a lot of time and research that begins in August and ends around Halloween. This forecast is a mix of some research I’ve done and information from trusted sources like Steve DiMartino of NY NJ PA Weather, a fellow certified digital meteorologist.
2. Miles make a difference. In one storm, Ocean City could be all rain, while Egg Harbor Township has 3 inches of snow and Asbury Park has a foot. This forecast is for the general shore area, not one particular house.
3. Average snowfall is meaningless at the shore area. Atlantic City International Airport averages 17.3 inches of snow, according to the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration. However, since records began in 1944, four winter seasons had less than an inch of snow, and six were buried in more than 40 inches of snow.
4. The ocean, which keeps our fall warmer than the New Jersey Turnpike corridor during the fall, also keeps us milder during the winter. An onshore wind with a nor’easter will keep the lawns brown, not white. You have to go to northwestern New Jersey, the Poconos and places north to be guaranteed snow.
Still, the winter forecast is exciting. It’s the most popular outlook of the year and I love talking about it with you.
How did last year’s winter forecast do?
Lower Township, at the southern end of Cape May County, had the most snow in the entire Jersey Shore area – 20.5 inches fell there. In fact, the only places in the state that were higher were northwest of Interstate 287, in the typically colder northwest New Jersey.
Otherwise, most of Atlantic, Cumberland and Cape May counties saw between 12 and 18 inches of snow. Farther north, the rest of the shore only had 7 to 12 inches.
Last year’s forecast column stated: “It’s safe to say that we can expect fewer storms with a possibility of snow.” I gave the shore a 65% chance of snow being 3 inches below the 14.8-inch seasonal snow average at the immediate coast, and the 17.4-inch average for the mainland. Consider it a pretty good forecast.
The not-so-great forecast was the coastal flooding outlook. I wrote that “near-to-slightly-above-average coastal flooding” was likely. Thank goodness this was wrong. Coastal flooding and beach erosion were nearly nonexistent.
The column also stated that temperatures would be “warmer than usual overall.” Turns out, our 37.9-degree average from December to March was just above the 30-year climate average of 37.6 at Atlantic City International Airport. At the beaches, the average at Sen. Frank S. Farley State Marina in Atlantic City was 38.9 degrees – below the average of 39.7.
Quick Jersey Shore winter forecast
Expect a couple of lighter snow events (less than 4 inches), with a better-than-average chance for bigger storms (4 to 8 inches). However, massive snow of more than a foot is less likely than usual.
Temperatures should be about average when everything is said and done. However, this should be due to big swings in temperatures averaging out to near average throughout the year. Four days of near-60-degree weather, followed by four days of 30-degree weather, is a strong possibility. Our first sustained cold shot looks to be at some point between Thanksgiving and Christmas.
Expect more coastal storms than usual. At the risk of sounding wishywashy, some will be mostly rain, and some will be mostly snow.
Beach erosion and tidal flooding will be more of a quantity than a quality (big issues) thing. However, with the beaches already damaged in spots, it’s a concern.
Jersey Shore winter forecast in more detail
The outcomes for this winter will be largely driven by three factors.
1. Weak La Niña, or colder-than-average water temperatures in the equatorial Pacific Ocean.
2. Much warmer-than-average water temperatures in the Pacific Ocean, off the United States West Coast.
3. Less-than-usual Arctic Ocean sea ice in North America.
You can’t start a winter forecast without looking at the state of the El Niño Southern Oscillation. This explains whether water temperatures in the equatorial Pacific Ocean are warmer or colder than average. We’re in La Niña, so it’s cooler than average.
However, a weak La Niña is only expected to last until February, according to NOAA. We may then go into a neutral state for the rest of the winter. Either way, the point is La Niña favors a slightly cooler and drier winter.
The next two factors both support stormier-than-usual winter patterns. The relatively warm water off the West Coast supports a storm track right through the Mid-Atlantic. Storms during the winter love a clash of cold and mild, and these line up perfectly for our region to be the battleground.
Meanwhile, sea ice is well below average on the North American continent. Unless something crazy happens, it will stay this way. That opens the jet stream – the river of air about 30,000 feet high – which is also the storm track, causing it to look like a rollercoaster, snaking south to north over the Eastern United States.
When the Jersey Shore is on the northern side of the track, storms are mostly snow. When the Jersey Shore is on the southern side of the track, they are mostly rain. Expect to see the classic 55 degrees and rain in Cape May, with 30 degrees and snow in Trenton a few times.
It’s tempting to go above average for snow at the Jersey Shore given all of this, with one or two big snows. However, the coastal storms that do develop off this jet stream will tend to start in Virginia or North Carolina. Even if it is mostly snow for us, they will have a short “runway” as they move northeast to develop heavy precipitation. These are called Miller B storm systems.
The high number of expected storms increases the likelihood of a few significant snowfalls, ranging from 4 to 8 inches. However, without a storm forming off the coast of Georgia or Florida – known as Miller A storms – it’s unlikely we’ll see major snow accumulations.
I expect more than the usual number of tidal flooding and beach erosion days. Most of these should be minor to perhaps moderate issues, but with the weakened state of our beaches in some locations, this will bring worse-than-usual impacts. The good news is the New Jersey Department of Environmental Protection believes the sand that was eroded will return by natural processes next spring. It won’t repair the dune cliffs seen along Jersey Shore; it will only fill in the erosion on the more gently sloping sand.
Being a citizen scientist, for cheap
The Community Collaborative Rain, Hail and Snow Network (CoCoRaHS) is the nation’s largest group of volunteers in the weather community. Each day, over 200 people in New Jersey and thousands across the United States report on how much precipitation they receive.
For $50 upfront (to purchase the rain gauge), your observations will be used by many in the weather community. I look at this constantly during storms and would love to see what you have at your home. In fact, New Jersey’s official state record for most yearly precipitation is from a CoCoRaHS gauge.
Email joe@cupajoe.live with any questions. We hope to see your reports this winter!
Joe Martucci, a Certified Broadcast Meteorologist and Digital Meteorologist, is the President and Director of Meteorology for Cup A Joe Weather and Drone. You can connect with him at cupajoe.live.
