By Meteorologist Joe Martucci
It hasn’t felt like it lately, but winter is coming. With that comes the promise of bone-chilling cold, and yes, at least the talk of snow. After all, our earliest date for measurable snowfall at Atlantic City International Airport is Nov. 5. With that comes the always exciting winter outlook. Interest in the winter ahead is always high.
This is probably my most popular talk of the year, up there with the Cape May Bubble and the hurricane outlook. In fact, if you want to take a trip up the shore, I will present an in-person winter outlook in Bradley Beach 7 p.m. Monday, Dec. 2 in Borough Hall.
After speaking with Steve DiMartino, owner of NY NJ PA Weather and a fellow certified digital meteorologist, here are the factors going into this winter’s outlook.
State of the El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO)
Are we in El Niño or La Niña? That depends on whether the water in the eastern tropical Pacific Ocean is warmer than average (El Niño), or colder than average (La Niña).
DiMartino says La Niña will come, but will be slow to develop. That typically leads to less snow for the Jersey Shore.
Siberian October snow cover
This was pioneered by Judah Cohen, director of seasonal forecasting for Atmospheric and Environmental Research in Massachusetts, whom I spoke with this week about winter as well.
In short, the more snow in Siberia by the end of the month, the higher the likelihood for snowy conditions in the Northeast. Snow cover in Siberia should be about average, DiMartino said. So, it really has a neutral influence on what this winter will be like for us.
Hunga Tonga volcano
The underwater, southern Pacific Ocean eruption in 2022 threw a large amount of water vapor into the atmosphere. DiMartino says we’re still dealing with its impacts.
He believes that the lower portion of the polar vortex, the semi-permanent “cold dome” of air that usually sits at the North Pole during the winter, should be weak. That means it should slip into the Northeast at least once this week. That will lead to an active storm track, and some cold air outbreaks.
Sea ice
For years sea ice has been below the long-term average, and this year will be the same. This should weaken the polar vortex, too, enhancing the idea that the polar vortex will visit the Northeast this winter.
Hope you enjoyed this behind-the-scenes view of what long-range meteorologists are looking at as they make their winter forecasts. For the record, I rely on these meteorologists to forecast the season ahead.
They spent months and dozens of hours researching, compiling data and then making the forecast (DiMartino started in March). I’ll put a Jersey Shore spin on it when I release our Shore Local winter outlook in November.
N.J. drought continues to worsen
The U.S. Drought Monitor now reports New Jersey is in its most expansive drought in seven years.
As of the Oct. 24 update, 69% of the state was classified as being in drought. That includes all of Atlantic and Cape May counties. In total, 3.7 million New Jerseyans are in drought.
Furthermore, most of Atlantic County west of the Garden State Parkway is in a D2 severe drought on a scale where D1 is moderate and D4 bing exceptional. That joins 32% of the state as being so.
The last time that much of the state was in severe drought or worse was Jan. 17, 2017. Severe drought gripped the state from October 2016 through March 2017. The state of New Jersey issued a drought watch for 14 counties, although Atlantic and Cape May counties were not included.
It’s just plain dry. Voluntary water restrictions remain in place. Grassy fields feel as hard as the sidewalk and the roads next to them, and the risk for wildfires remains high in the Pine Barrens. In fact, on Oct. 24, a red flag warning for the dangerous spread of wildfires was put into place. That was the first time that happened in fall since 2013.
If conditions do not improve, then a drought emergency with mandatory water use restrictions may go into place.
It will get worse before it gets better. However, there could be is light rain at the end of the tunnel. The weekend of Nov. 8-10 shows promises for rain.
Spookily warm Halloween?
Happy Halloween to everyone celebrating. Our issue comes out on Halloween, of course. While I don’t know exactly what the high temperature will be for us Thursday afternoon, I do know it will be one of the warmest on record.
The warmest Halloween on record at Atlantic City International Airport was 83 degrees in 1946, according to the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration. More than likely we won’t be that warm. However, we should be at or above 75 degrees, which would put us in the top five warmest. Records go back to 1944.
At the long-standing Sen. Frank S. Farley State Marina in Atlantic City, the record high is 81 degrees, also in 1946. We should manage to be at or above 74 degrees, which would also put us in the top five warmest. Records stretch back to 1874, shortly after the city was incorporated.
Joe earned his Meteorology Degree from Rutgers University. He is approved by the American Meteorological Society as a Certified Broadcast Meteorologist and Certified Digital Meteorologist, the only one in the state with both. He’s won 10 New Jersey Press Association Awards. You can find him on social media @joemartwx
