Weather
By Dan Skeldon
Was our practically snowless winter a sign of things to come? Will stronger and more frequent hurricanes be the trade-off? Will our seasons shift? Or have they already?
All good questions, and just a sampling of the climate change fueled conversations that meteorologists have engaged. Unfortunately, like so much else these days, climate change has sadly become a hot-button issue. And it really shouldn’t be, as it’s not political, it’s science. And the science is crystal clear. Our climate is changing, and here in South Jersey, especially on the barrier islands, we should be sensitive to what those changes could mean.
Let me start with this though, and it’s something I’ve said many times before. Meteorology is an “inexact science.” So if forecasting the weather a few days out can be wrought with failure, it stands to reason that any time spent on a forecast a few decades (or more) out in time is an exercise in futility.
However, both meteorology and climatology continue to improve, often by leaps and bounds. And the undeniable trends of a warming climate can allow me to draw several “reasonable conclusions” as to how the climate along the barrier islands of South Jersey could change if these trends continue. So humor me as we look well beyond the typical seven-day forecast, if only for one column:
Will snow be more scarce in the winter?
The short answer is yes, but I think the last few winters give us a good idea of what the new reality could be. Two of the last four winters have been among the least snowy on record, with less than an inch in each case. And we may have more lean winters when it comes to snow. But tucked in between those two snow-less ones was the winter of 2021-22, with back-to-back blizzards leading to record January snows. Our changing climate could make it feast or famine with respect to snow, with favorable winters providing multiple big snow chances, with the more frequent less favorable ones providing few if any opportunities. Cold snaps could be intense, like our cold last Christmas, but also short-lived.
Will our seasons shift, or have they already?
I’ve theorized for the better part of the last decade that our “shift” in seasons has already begun. Of course, we all know Mother Nature never has directly adhered to the calendar anyway, even before climate change. But winters seem a little shorter and delayed, which is then followed by a later spring and a quicker onset of summer. Summer-like temperatures have often been more intense, as most of the Top 10 hottest summers on record have occurred over the past few decades. Summer-like warmth often extends longer into the traditionally cooler times of late September and even October. So the cool and crisp weather we associate with fall has arrived later than usual, but the onset of cold and snow is also late, allowing for an extended fall. Then we rinse and repeat all over again.
Will the summers be hotter? And will droughts like last year be more common?
Yes, I think that all four seasons will be a little warmer than our averages over the last three or four decades, including summer. Now that doesn’t mean we’ll have Florida-like heat and humidity all summer-long. But heat waves can be a little more intense, and last a little longer.
Now a warming climate will likely be a stickier climate for us, so yes, more heat and more humidity. Of course, humidity is moisture in the air and often fuel for pop-up summertime thunderstorms. So hotter does not necessarily mean drier. In fact, droughts here in South Jersey, while not impossible, aren’t as common as floods. And high heat and high humidity air are more likely to produce the latter, so I’d speculate flash flooding would be more of a risk than extended droughts in a warming climate, at least for us locally.
What about tornadoes and hurricanes?
Thankfully, South Jersey will never be in the heart of tornado alley, or stick out like a sore thumb like Florida with respect to hurricanes. But our changing climate can make both tornadoes and hurricanes more impactful “IF” one ever finds its way to our backyards. Warmer ocean water and higher sea levels can lead to stronger hurricanes and higher storm surge, again only IF a hurricane takes the perfect track up the East Coast. Climate change doesn’t necessarily increase our chances of a hurricane, but can lead to a more impactful storm if one were to strike. Similarly, strong tornadoes are very rare along the New Jersey shore. However, eastern Pennsylvania and New Jersey have seen an uptick in the intensity of tornadoes in recent years.
Tidal Flooding: Get used to more of it!
Flooded streets, whether during a nor’easter or a full or new moon, is a way of life and a regular inconvenience for barrier island residents, and has gone on since the islands were first settled. But as sea levels slowly rise and coastal areas continue to develop, the frequency of tidal flooding will likewise continue to rise, mostly minor to moderate flooding episodes. Major flooding may not be any more of a regular occurrence, and will as always be a product of nor’easters and tropical systems when they decide to strike.
Final thoughts:
So there are those who 100 percent deny climate change altogether. And there are those who blame 100 percent of all weather events on climate change. Let’s disregard the extremes, as the reality, as usual, lies in the middle. Our climate is changing, and our expectations should change along with it.
Yes, we can still expect South Jersey to be a wonderful place to live, complete with four distinct seasons. They may shift a little compared to lifelong expectations, both in timing and intensity. Winters can still be bad, but bad ones may be more rare. And summers will be hotter, but our lakes and rivers aren’t going to dry up. And no matter what the climate brings, we’ll still always spend most of our time forecasting the weather, one seven-day forecast at a time.
Meteorologist Dan Skeldon has a degree in meteorology from Cornell University. He has forecasted the weather in South Jersey for the last 18 years, first on the former television station NBC40 and then on Longport Media radio. Dan has earned the American Meteorological Society Seal of Approval for Broadcast Meteorologists, and now does television broadcasts on WFMZ-TV in Pennsylvania’s Lehigh Valley.
