2026 is poised to be a big year for weather
I can’t forecast the Jersey Shore weather 365 days out, but given a full year of a new president, and the recent election of a new governor, expect behind-the-scenes, policy-side changes when it comes to meteorology.
Overall, 2025 was a pretty quiet year for big weather and climate events at the Jersey Shore. We need to keep it that way. Here’s what to keep an eye out for in the year ahead.
How bad will the drought get?
It’s No. 1 on my list of top 10 weather events of 2025, and we’ll carry this over into our lookahead column for 2026.
The fifth wettest May on record going back to 1895, according to the New Jersey State Climatologist, pulled New Jersey out of the most significant drought since 1999-2002.
However, it was brief. Summer was dry and on Dec. 5, the New Jersey Department of Environmental Protection returned the state to Drought Warning status. That brought voluntary water conservation.
The United States Drought Monitor has the Lower Cape, the Delaware Bayshore and essentially the western half of the state in one of the four drought stages. A dry January may be good for your health, but it will hurt the heartbeat of New Jersey’s nature.
The Climate Prediction Center gives “equal chances” for either a wetter or drier rest of the winter. Hopefully, it will get wetter. If it doesn’t, expect an active forest fire season. Don’t be surprised if the state issues its first Drought Emergency, with mandatory water restrictions by the governor.
Will NJ REAL laws pass?
Speaking of governor, New Jersey will have a new one in 2026. Mikie Sherill takes the top spot in New Jersey government on Jan. 20. Also in January is the “anticipated adoption” of the Resilient Environments and Landscapes (REAL) rules to change environmental land use regulations by the New Jersey Department of Environmental Protection.
The NJ REAL rules will mandate a variety of changes. Most notably for the shore, however, would adjust the Base Flood Elevation (BFE) level upward. That’s the height floodwaters are expected to reach with a 1% chance in any given year. If you live in a flood zone with a federally backed mortgage, your lowest floor must be at or above the BFE.
Right now, the state requires structures in flood zones to be one foot higher than BFE. The NJDEP first proposed this to go up to five feet above BFE, based on a 17% chance sea levels will rise that amount by 2100. However, after public feedback, it was revised to four feet.
The current DEP commissioner is Shawn LaTourette, who’s served since 2021. At the time of this writing, Gov.-Elect Sherill had not announced whom the DEP commissioner will be.
If she keeps LaTourette, expect new homes at the Jersey Shore to go higher to protect against flooding. If a different commissioner comes in, you may see a quick change, or removal, of the NJ REAL rules.
How will NOAA look?
Over 2,400 National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration employees departed from NOAA during the first months of 2025. Losing the 27,000 years of combined experience was a byproduct of the Department of Government Efficiency (DOGE)’s cost-cutting crusade. That was a 20% cut.
NOAA helps keep people safe in the United States by providing daily weather forecasts, warnings of dangerous storms and information about long-term climate changes through its National Weather Service.
Since then, some jobs have come back. NOAA is hiring again. President Donald Trump and the Senate also tapped Dr. Neil Jacobs to be administrator. He held the “acting” role from 2019-2021.
Jacobs is generally seen as a good pick by the NOAA employees, although he got in trouble for violating NOAA’s code of ethics in September 2019 during Hurricane Dorian.
One of the major changes in the new year is that the National Weather Service, which is under NOAA, can hire for positions directly. This allows our local office in Mount Holly, for example, to act quickly to fill vacancies.
Can AI weather models progress more?
Speaking of the United States Government, NOAA took a big leap forward at the end of 2025 with the announcement of three new artificial intelligence weather models.
The AI models are different. They take the current and recent state of the atmosphere, but they look for similar patterns in the weather that have happened before, with some physics. It then uses what happened in the past as a basis for what will happen in the future.
American, European and Google weather computer models have been better over their traditional physics-based counterparts. A downside has been the resolution of the forecast is lower than the physics-based models. If we can improve that in 2026, the old way of computer model forecasting will probably be out.
Changes at the National Hurricane Center
Each year, the NOAA’s National Hurricane Center, based in Miami, Fla., releases a list of updates and changes to the way they conduct business. This always involves updating the size of the forecast track cone, which shows an area with a 66% chance of the storm’s eye to be in.
We’ve seen drastic improvements in the size of the forecast cone over time, allowing emergency managers, mayors, police, fire and meteorologists to tell you more accurately if you’ll be in harm’s way or not. Expect to see another slight improvement this year.
Last year brought six changes. The biggest probably was adding all areas that are in watches or warnings, to the official hurricane center forecast map. Given NOAA’s recent history, expect an improvement to the way the National Hurricane Center, and all meteorologists, convey the threats a storm will bring.
Easier to understand forecast discussions
The National Weather Service in Mount Holly, our local office, is hoping you will read more of their forecast reasonings this year.
The “Area Forecast Discussion,” the NWS office’s way of explaining why the forecast will be the way they predict, has switched from chronological order to severe impact order. If a nor’easter is hitting five days from now, that will be talked about first, not the forecast for tonight.
They will also include a “What Has Changed” section. This is an easier way to see their updates than before.
This change began on Jan. 6. So, you can see it now by going to www.weather.gov/phi and clicking on the “forecast discussion” link.
Joe Martucci, a Certified Broadcast Meteorologist and Digital Meteorologist, is the President and Director of Meteorology for Cup A Joe Weather and Drone. You can connect with him at cupajoe.live.
