Weather
By Dan Skeldon
That’s just what many hope for each June, July, and August. A hot and humid summer that makes the beach the place to be.
But those that have followed my South Jersey forecasts over the last few decades probably know my forecasting cornerstones:
I never unnecessarily hype the weather, and cringe when others do.
I despise and see little value in most long range (>14 days) weather forecasts, with the exception of the annual hurricane outlook, which by the way I’ll discuss in next week’s column.
But despite my aforementioned aversion to seasonal forecasts, including those for the summer, let me make a few predictions that I am confident will come true over the next few months. Meteorologists should never make a guarantee when it comes to the inexact science of meteorology, but I digress.
First, I’m confidently predicting a warmer than average summer, and a more humid than average one as well. But I’m not preemptively patting myself on the back in making this less bold than it appears forecast. Rather, it’s the reality of climate change.
Here’s an astounding statistic to prove that point. Of the top 10 hottest summers on record at the Atlantic City International Airport (ACY) in Egg Harbor Township, where records are kept in South Jersey, 9 of the 10 hottest have occurred since 2005. The Top 5 hottest summers have all occurred since 2010. So it’s hardly a bold prognostication to predict warmer than average temperatures. The real question is just how far above average this summer will be, and if it will rank in the top 10. 2004, 2009, and 2014 are the only cooler than average summers we’ve seen in South Jersey since the turn of the century. So since 2000, 18 of 21 summers have been warmer than average, and recently, much warmer than average. A cool one is always possible, but increasingly unlikely as each decade progresses.
Then there’s the prediction for a stickier summer, but that isn’t much of a leap of forecasting faith either. It’s a fact that warmer air holds more moisture. So the warmer a summer is, normally, the more humid it is as well. That means more bouts with the summer muggies, and likely more sticky and steamy 70-something-degree nights as well. A warmer climate is also a more humid climate, which leads us to our next summer topic: thunderstorms.
Of course, warmth and humidity are the primary drivers for thunderstorms, and higher heat and humidity leads to more opportunities for severe thunderstorms as well. Granted, we may not see a repeat of last year’s unusually frequent and intense tornadoes in New Jersey and Pennsylvania. But severe thunderstorms, and the occasional tornado, also likewise become more common when a warmer and stickier summer is forecast, which is the default prediction most summer these days, including this upcoming one. However, forecasting where and when any severe weather outbreaks take place is something unknown until the day it occurs, and even then, not sooner than a few hours before any storms strike.
Now there are some variables that can throw a wrench in this seemingly simple reasoning behind the summer forecast. A consistently colder Atlantic Ocean, say from frequent upwelling events, could lead to stronger sea-breezes and stronger ocean-induced cooling, at least in Atlantic and Cape May counties. That would in turn cut into temperatures, and lead to closer to average summer temperatures. And ocean temperatures and upwelling events are things unable to predict in a seasonal forecast.
There’s also the tropical wild card, again the topic of next week’s column. An active hurricane season, and more importantly a season that sends one or more tropical systems our way, can lead to big rains and a wetter than average summer. And when the ground is very wet, it doesn’t heat up as easily as dry ground. So a wet summer is often a humid one, but not necessarily a hot one.
Another unanswerable summer forecast element is how nice or not-so-nice the three big summer holiday weekends will be. The Memorial Day, July Fourth, and Labor Day holiday weekends are ones where we all hope for sun-sational weather. But whether or not perfect weather coincides with those big weekends is up to Mother Nature, not a long term summer forecast.
As always, time will tell what the upcoming summer season will bring, and it’s always best to take things one 7-day forecast at a time. Plus one hurricane forecast for 2022, coming next week.
Meteorologist Dan Skeldon has a degree in meteorology from Cornell University. He has forecasted the weather in South Jersey for the last 18 years, first on the former television station NBC40 and then on Longport Media radio. Dan has earned the American Meteorological Society Seal of Approval for Broadcast Meteorologists, and now does television broadcasts on WFMZ-TV in Pennsylvania’s Lehigh Valley.
