By Meteorologist Joe Martucci
Our drought is bad right now, there are no two ways about it. However, instead of this being the worst drought since 2002, this could have been the worst since decades earlier were it not for a wet start to 2024.
Believe it or not, when March ended, Atlantic City International Airport in Egg Harbor Township had the wettest start to the year on record. The 18.22 inches of precipitation bested the previous record of 17.90 inches in 2010. At the Sen. Frank S. Farley State Marina, which has records dating back to 1873, one of the longest in the country, it was the eighth wettest start.
Atlantic City slipped out of the top 10 at the end of April, but ACY Airport was still the wettest then. The airport wouldn’t slip out of the top 10 until September. That makes sense as drought first began in Atlantic County with the Sept. 10 update from the United States Drought Monitor. It expanded south into Cape May County on Oct. 15.
To go a step further, at ACY Airport we didn’t go below average for precipitation year-to-date until Oct. 28. Less impressively, Atlantic City Marina didn’t do the same until Aug. 25, right when our drought took off.
As of the Nov. 12 update from the United States Drought Monitor, all of Atlantic County is in “extreme” drought, the third level of drought out of four, along with Ocean City, Upper Township, Woodbine and Dennis Township in Cape May County. The northern part of Sea Isle City is in extreme drought, too. The rest of Cape May County is in a “severe” drought, the second level of drought. The entire state is either in the second or third level of drought. That’s the first time that’s happened since 2002.
On Nov. 13, Gov. Phil Murphy, along with the New Jersey Department of Environmental Protection, issued a drought warning for the state. That was an upgrade from the drought watch put into place on Oct. 22. This is the first drought warning since October 2016, which lasted until August 2017 in some parts of the state.
“The administrative order establishes a formal process for the DEP to work with water suppliers in affected regions to ensure no single water supplier or region faces a significant shortfall if dry weather and high customer demand continue,” according to the press release issued by the state. In other words, the drought warning is the policy put into effect by the state in part due to the data that comes from the United States Drought Monitor.
We know how dry the ground has been. All New Jersey American Water customers are under a mandatory conservation order. Outdoor watering and car washing must be paused.
However, it’s fair to wonder what our situation would be if the first roughly half of 2024 weren’t so wet. Even if we had average precipitation through June, with the same precipitation afterwards as it is now, my prediction is that Atlantic and Cape May counties would be in an exceptional drought, the highest stage, here in late November. That’s never happened here in the United States Drought Monitor’s recorded history.
The state would likely have issued a drought watch weeks earlier. We’d definitely be weeks into the drought warning. I’m sure the state would take a long look at issuing a drought emergency and the governor would be ordering mandatory water restrictions for everyone in the state.
The long-term multi-indicator drought index
The Long-Term Multi-Indicator Drought Index (MIID) approximates drought from changes in precipitation and moisture up to five hours. Going off of this alone, most of Atlantic and Cape May counties wouldn’t be in drought at all. At worst, the far western and eastern portions of Atlantic County would be in a moderate drought, the first state of drought. In fact, part of Cape May County would wind up in a state called W1, which is wetter than usual.
So while the winter and spring were pretty dreary around here, we should be thankful. It’s preventing us from an even worse situation now.
Joe earned his Meteorology Degree from Rutgers University. He is approved by the American Meteorological Society as a Certified Broadcast Meteorologist and Certified Digital Meteorologist, the only one in the state with both. He’s won 10 New Jersey Press Association Awards. You can find him on social media @joemartwx
