By Meteorologist Joe Martucci
As the weather saying goes at the Jersey Shore: Memorial Day weekend, we soak. Labor Day weekend, we shine… And on the Fourth of July weekend, we sweat.
July is our hottest month of the year, on average. That typically means our midsummer holiday is the warmest of the three. However, the past five years have had mixed results.
At Atlantic City International Airport in Egg Harbor Township, Independence Day had the highest temperature in 2019 and 2020. 2021 and 2023 were not, though. Then, in an odd twist, the high temperature was exactly 84 degrees on all three holidays in 2022, according to the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration.
Fourth of July has a good chance of reclaiming its rightful spot as the hottest summer holiday in 2024, though.
Fourth of July Forecast
Last week, I talked about the Climate Prediction Center forecasting this weekend to be hotter than average. That will come true.
The Fourth of July and Friday will be closest to average, but pop-up afternoon showers and thunderstorms provide fireworks of their own this time of the year. It won’t be a washout. Typical of summer, the driest places will be east of Route 9, where the stabilizing sea breeze should keep most, if not all, rain away. West of there, expect isolated (Thursday) to scattered (Friday) coverage. Heavy rain could bring localized flooding.
So, the Smithville Fourth of July parade and other morning parades will be fine. Fireworks at the shore should be fine Thursday. You’ll need to watch the radar for storms inland at night. However, I believe most will be OK.
Expect high temperatures to be in the upper 80s to low 90s inland. At the shore, highs will sit right around 80 degrees. The sea breeze will fluctuate temperatures throughout the days, though.
Overnight lows will generally be 65 to 70 degrees. It’ll be pretty sticky Friday night.
Saturday will be the wettest day of the Fourth of July weekend as it turns humid. A cold front will slowly pass through the state. I can’t rule out rain at any point, but it’ll be most widespread during the afternoon. Even the shore will be in on some rain.
While a few places will be completely dry, you should expect at least a little bit of rain Saturday. A few spots should see rain for three or four hours. Given the humid air, flooding rain threatens. In fact, this reminds me of Sunday. Cape May County flooded in the morning with inches of rain, while Atlantic and Ocean counties had two periods of showers and thunderstorms.
There will be outdoor time, but if you have a cookout or a day on the boat planned, move it to another day to be safe.
Highs will be in the low 80s at the shore and near 90 degrees inland. It will feel sultry out there.
Drying high pressure should fill in on Sunday. Winds out of the west will keep the warm breeze blowing from the Pine Barrens to the coastline. Highs should be in the low to mid-90s inland, while the shore will be in the mid-80s. Expect a healthy dose of strong July sun to cap off the holiday weekend.
Inches of rain, severe weather Sunday
Last Sunday brought flooding rain to most of Cape May County and even southern Atlantic City during the morning. Then, severe thunderstorms rumbled through the South Jersey shoreline during the evening.
It was all thanks to a potent cold front. That clash of soupy, swampy air ahead of the front and drying breezes behind it fueled it to unleash rounds of significant storms Sunday.
A number of friends texted me photos of flooding near them Sunday morning. Based on the rainfall totals, the flooding was inevitable.
Belleplain State Forest, in Dennis Township, picked up 6.94 inches of rain between Saturday evening and Sunday night. That was the highest in our general region. Closer to the shore, Sea Isle City picked up 4.74 inches of rain. Egg Harbor Township was drenched in 3.42 inches of rain, while Ocean City accumulated a whopping 3.42 inches of rain.
Most of that fell Saturday night into Sunday morning.
Eighteen storm reports were sent to NOAA from New Jersey (though most were in North Jersey). This means there was storm damage or very strong winds. Most unusual was a tree down on the Garden State Parkway by Exit 58.
Smoke and wildfires, stay away
This time last year, we were still reeling from the rounds of smoke from the northern Canadian wildfires. It grayed up our sky and made those sunny days dull. At worst, we had poor air quality. June 7 was the worst of it. If you went north of Toms River, the immense smoke turned the sky orange for a time.
Besides one bout of smoke in late February, our sky has been blue during the day when the sun is out.
Let’s be thankful for that. There are active wildfires in Alaska and northwest Canada. However, for Canada, 2024’s number of wildfires and the area it consumes is well below the 10-year average.
The wildfires that have burned forests were not transported here by the jet stream or winds high aloft.
Let’s not forget about our own Pine Barrens either, which can be a tinderbox, and a strong source for wildfires. We’ve been quiet here as well. Our biggest blaze was the County Line fire, which burned 510 acres in Wharton State Forest, according to the New Jersey Forest Fire Service. Hopefully, it stays that way into the summer.
Happy Fourth of July!
Enjoy the beach, boat, cookouts and our freedom in America. I’ll livestream the Smithville Independence Day parade Thursday at 9 a.m. on Shore Local’s Facebook page.
Joe earned his Meteorology Degree from Rutgers University. He is approved by the American Meteorological Society as a Certified Broadcast Meteorologist and Certified Digital Meteorologist, the only one in the state with both. He’s won 10 New Jersey Press Association Awards. You can find him on social media @joemartwx
