By Nick Pittman
I’m sure many of you saw the Farmer’s Almanac forecast for this upcoming Winter. I was flooded with inbox messages and emails the day after it came out because people are freaking out about the “polar coaster winter” coming our way. For the record, I have no clue what that means. Yet another invented term like bomb cyclone and polar vortex. All these scary terms used to get ratings and sell headlines. It’s ridiculous. I often wonder what happened to “plain ole winter”? We live in a day and age where everything is hyped and sensationalized, I just don’t understand it anymore. My opinion of the “forecast”? It’s a bunch of malarkey. While the Farmer’s Almanac is a fun read, there is no basis in actual scientific fact.
My opinion of general long range forecasting has really developed and transformed over the years. When I first got into the business a decade ago I would start looking at Winter in August. Not anymore. Too many battle wounds. The fact is like it or not, the climate IS changing. I don’t subscribe to the idea that it’s all man-made, I believe it’s mostly natural and cyclical but regardless of what the cause is – it IS changing and forecasting is becoming harder by the year. We can pick up on overall trends a couple months out but to say with complete certainty that a season is going to feature “x, y and z” is absurd.
There are many factors that go into long range forecasting, mainly the status of sea surface temperatures. We started Summer with an El Nino, we are transitioning into a La Nina pattern right now. Typically that means several cool blasts in the east with more clipper type systems for snowfall in the Mid-Atlantic and South Jersey. That’s very general and very vague. Check back with me at the end of October and we can take a better stab at what may pan out.
