The latest in the Race for the New Jersey State Senate, General Assembly in Districts 1 & 2
By HARRY
HURLEY
Political Columnist
The Hurley Line:
In a “Hurley in the Morning”WPG Talk Radio 104.1 exclusive on Friday, March 1, 2019,Atlantic County Freeholder Frank Formica confirmed that he was dropping out of the race for the New Jersey General Assembly in District 2.
Formica shared that both personal and professional issues have arisen that prevent him from staying in the race. Formica is facing two substantial lawsuits regarding personal injuries that employees experienced at Baker Boys LLC.
Formica said it was with “a very heavy heart” that he must leave the campaign. Formica knew that it was untenable for him to remain as a candidate for the state legislature, “because the Democrats would attack me and I would hurt the entire ticket and I can’t allow that to happen,” said Formica.
Formica also confirmed that he plans to raise money for the Republican ticket and offer any campaign assistance that the Republican Party needs.
Formica’s departure dramatically alters the state of this race for the two open Republican Nominations. Formica was a heavy favorite to grab one of them. Formica was also enthusiastically running on a ticket with former Brigantine Mayor Phil Guenther.
In another exclusive, we have have confirmed that Guenther will remain in the race. The electoral math for the Atlantic County Committee in deciding between three candidates to fill two seats versus four, changes the dynamics of the campaign.
Additionally, with Formica exiting, perhaps other candidate(s) may be enticed to enter the race. As of our deadline, the race remains a three-person field.
In the last issue of Shore Local Newsmagazine we handicapped the field of four. Here’s how we see it now:
1. Freeholder John Risley
2. Mayor Phil Guenther
3. Councilman James Toto
Although we forecast that Toto is still running out of the “money” … his prospects have dramatically improved with Formica’s exit. Previously, Toto was being hopelessly boxed-out by the more well known candidates.
Toto is the quintessential gentleman and a very hard worker. He wants this nomination bad and he will not be out-worked. Despite these factors, Risley-Guenther will be tough to beat.
With Atlantic County Executive Dennis Levinson on the ballot and the mounting unpopularity with New Jersey Governor Phil Murphy … this is a much more favorable environment for Republicans to run-in versus the past two elections cycles.
State Senator Chris Brown was one of the only Republicans to win at large in the recent past. Risley and Formica also scored narrow at large victories in nearly a Democrat wave climate.
Risley is now an overwhelming favorite to capture one of the two Republican Nominations. He’s battle tested and he has proven to the Atlantic County County Committee voters that he can win county-wide.
This leaves just one spot. As of now, it will either be Guenther or Toto. Guenther was the long-time Mayor of Brigantine. Toto is a current Councilman in Somers Point.
The two Republicans will face Democratic incumbent Assemblymen Vince Mazzeo and John Armato in the November 5, 2019 General Election.
The Republicans will have to overcome millions of dollars that will flow freely from neighboring Camden County. And, just as daunting, Republicans will have to overcome the vaunted Craig Callaway “Vote by Mail” juggernaut.
The Callaway Organization has scaled its operation and has achieved electoral success never seen before in Atlantic County history.
Levinson still does not have an official Democratic challenger. during his last two re-election cycles, he has had to wait until the conclusion of the Atlantic County Democratic Convention takes place to learn if he would have a challenger..
Eight years ago, the Democrats did not field a challenger. Four years ago, James Schroeder, Jr., Esquire won the Democratic Nomination at the convention and ultimately dropped out-of-the-race, assuring Levinson’s latest election victory was guaranteed.
A few weeks ago, “Hurley in the Morning” reported that Democrat Michael Price may step-up and challenge Levinson. Price is a relative unknown, who was recently appointed to a vacant Egg Harbor Township Board of Education seat.
This much we do know. As usual, the Democrats are having significant difficulty finding a candidate willing to run against Levinson. It would be a smarter strategy for the Democrats to not challenge Levinson. But, the competitive nature of electoral politics makes this an unappealing choice.
In Neighboring District 1,Cumberland County Republican Party Chairman Michael Testa is running a masterclass campaign. It is a campaign of shock and awe, with Testa rolling out one major league Republican endorsement after another.
Testa is also running an effective “Flip-the-1st” strategy. I’ve been covering campaigns closely for nearly three decades. Testa is running one of the most impressive campaigns I have ever witnessed. It is smart. Takes nothing for granted. He is respectful to all. And, remarkably in these cesspool, divided political times in which we live … Testa is running a totally positive campaign.
Testa’s current list of endorsements reads like a “Who’s Who” novel of elite and respected Republicans. Here’s the list to date:
Former New Jersey Lt. Governor Kim Guadagno, who literally called into the “Hurley in the Morning” program unannounced, because she was listening live during Testa’s announcement of his candidacy. Guadagno offered Testa an unconditional, enthusiastic endorsement.
The rest of the Testa endorsements include:
- Gerry Thornton – Freeholder Director, Cape May County
- Erik Simonsen – Lower Township Mayor
- Jeff Lindsay – Cumberland County Freeholder
- Joe Sparacio – Cumberland County Freeholder
- Former District 1 State Senators (all legends) … Nick Asselta, James Hurley andJames Cafiero
- Tim Donohue – Middle Township Mayor
- State Senator Tom Kean, Jr. – District 21
- State Senator Chris Brown – District 2
The smartest thing that District 1 could do is to nominate Testa for Senate and formerAssemblyman Sam Fiocchi for one of the Assembly seats. Both of these fine men could win on November 5, 2019.
Instead, they are presently running against each other for the Republican Senate nomination. Despite this, they could both still wind-up being running mates. That would be the smart thing to do.
Testa and Ficchi are two of the most respectful, nicest and decent men that you will ever see in the filthy, dirty business of electoral politics.
On the Democratic side, Testa,-Fiocchi will face the appointed incumbent State Senator Bob Andrzejczak, incumbentAssemblyman Bruce Land and the current and formerAssemblyman Matt Milam.
Regardless of how the Republican nominating sweepstakes goes, make no mistake about it that the Democratic ticket will be running as “The Van Drew Team.”
United States Congressman Jeff Van Drew is not on the ballot and yet, he remains the key. Without Van Drew, District 1 would have three Republican Representatives at the state legislative level.
Even when Van Drew is not on the ballot, he works his electoral magic and whomever he supports typically wins. This will be Van Drew’s toughest test. It’s different when you’re splitting time in Washington, D.C. and the district, however, never underestimate Van Drew.
Much still remains undecided. Stay close, as we’ll be providing the most comprehensive coverage anywhere.
