The latest in the Race for the New Jersey General Assembly – District 2, Mazzeo and the Dennis Levinson Factors
By HARRY
HURLEY
Political Columnist
The Hurley Line:
The race for who will be the two Republican Nominees in the New Jersey General Assembly may very well come down to how the various towns decide to apportion their County Committee votes.
For example, will the biggest prize of them all … Egg Harbor Township vote in a bloc? Or, will they divide their votes as individually earned? In the past, Egg Harbor Township has floated between doing it both ways.
Several well placed sources have confirmed that Egg Harbor Township will not bloc vote, despite “Favorite Son” John Risley running. Risley is the only person running for the New Jersey General Assembly who lives in Egg Harbor Township.
A bloc vote means that if you win one more than the majority of the total vote allocation, you would get them all. Let’s say that Egg Harbor Township has 250 total votes. If you received 126, you would get all 250.
Egg Harbor Township Committeeman Joe Cafero ran for the Republican Nomination for Atlantic County Surrogate against incumbent Jim Curcio in a contested Atlantic County Republican Convention contest.
To his credit, the honorable Cafero asked for his home town (Egg Harbor Township) to not cast a bloc vote for him. He wanted each persons vote to count. Curcio went on to win a significant portion of Egg Harbor Township and he won the Nomination and a second term … after defeating Jim Carney in a repeat of their race from five years previously.
Had Cafero pushed for a bloc vote and received it from Egg Harbor Township, he would have won the Republican Nomination over the incumbent Curcio. It can’t be proven, but, I have always believed that Carney would have defeated Cafero in this hypothetical General Election match-up.
This now means that Risley will have to earn each Egg Harbor Township, one-at-a-time, which Risley doesn’t mind at all. In a recent “Hurley in the Morning” WPG Talk Radio 104.1 FM live interview, Risley said, “I have no problem whatsoever with my home town not offering a bloc vote, said Risley. “I intend to earn them one-by-one, the old fashioned way.”
This is very big news for Freeholder Frank Formica, former Brigantine Mayor Phil Guenther and Somers Point City Councilman James Toto; who can now compete for these coveted votes. There are more votes available in Egg Harbor Township then any other town.
With Risley being the only resident of Egg Harbor Township, the second slot is wide open. Even without a bloc vote available, I project that Risley will win the most votes out of Egg Harbor Township.
Risley lives there. He was former Egg Harbor Township Committeeman and he has successfully represented his home town for many years as an Atlantic County Freeholder at Large.
It will be interesting to see how Egg Harbor Township divides their “second” vote between the remaining three challengers.
Hamilton Township has the next highest number of votes. They have also voted as a bloc many times over the years. It is not decided at this time how Hamilton Township will decide to vote. A bloc vote is obviously very powerful and candidates love to receive each and every vote from a town.
Conversely, those candidates who don’t receive a bloc vote, strenuously object and declare with indignation that it denies the golden rule of “one person, one vote.”
Formica and Guenther should fare very well down beach (Ventnor, Margate, Longport and Brigantine).
When you lose in Egg Harbor Township, in order to win, you must cobble the down beach and western portion of Atlantic County to make-up the gap. If you lose Egg Harbor Township and Hamilton Township by a wide margin, it’s almost impossible to win.
It’s the local comparison of the national Electoral College for President. In the Electoral College, when you win Florida (29) Texas (28), Pennsylvania (20) (these three states alone are 77 of the 270 total electoral votes that you need to win the United States Presidency).
The two winning Republicans will face Democratic incumbents Vince Mazzeo and John Armato.
Despite voting for a budget that shifted funding from United States Veterans to illegal aliens; make no mistake about it, Mazzeo remains a strong candidate for re-election. Why, because what is typically disqualifying for most candidates doesn’t seem to apply to Mazzeo.
The millions of dollars that will funnel its way to the Mazzeo-Armato campaign from Camden County potentates also doesn’t hurt!
In the last Shore Local Newsmagazine, I described in detail my telephone conversation with Mazzeo. At that time, Mazzeo conveyed to me that it was a 50% to 50% proposition whether or not he would seek re-election.
Within a few hours of my breaking news report, an undisclosed Democrat confirmed that Mazzeo was 100% running. Mazzeo is campaigning and attending fundraisers. There appears no doubt that he is running for re-election.
This is the second consecutive state legislative election cycle whereby Mazzeo has brought some drama and excitement to the process. Two years ago, (this March), Mazzeo dropped out from the race for the New Jersey State Senate and switched back to run for re-election for his Assembly seat.
It looked terrible at the time and it was emasculating … but, it was very good politics. The polling had strongly suggested that Mazzeo would lose to current State Senator Chris Brown.
Mazzeo not running for the Assembly, also put both seats within the grasp of Republicans. When Mazzeo moved back to the Assembly race, he became the top vote winner and directly provided a wave for Armato to surf-in for the second seat sweep.
Colin Bell replaced Mazzeo as the Democratic Nominee for the senate and ran a strong and competitive race against Senator Brown.
The Hurley line for the New Jersey General Assembly Republican Nomination at this time is:
- Risley
- Formica
- Guenther
- Toto
However, with Formica and Guenther running as a ticket versus Risley and Toto running as individual candidates; it remains to be seen how this plays out. My still early read is that this is a big advantage for Formica and Guenther.
The math would seem simple. When you run on a “ticket” you receive any vote that is for you only, along with all votes received by those who are willing to vote for the ticket.
Risley and Toto will have to win each vote on a one-by-one basis. This is obviously harder to accomplish.
The secret weapon for the Atlantic County Republicans remains to be Atlantic County Executive Dennis Levinson. Each time Levinson is on the ballot, the Republicans do well up and down the ballot. Levinson is the most significant Republican vote winner in Atlantic County and he is also a prodigious fundraiser.
At this late date, the Atlantic County Democrats still do not have a single candidate willing to run against Levinson. He will either run unopposed (again) or the Democrats will pick or “sacrifice” a challenger on the day of their convention.
Harry Hurley is the president of Harry Hurley Consulting and Communications, LLC. He hosts the daily talk radio program “Hurley in the Morning” 6-10 a.m., weekdays on Townsquare Media, WPG Talk Radio 104.1 FM & 1450 AM, where he also serves as the senior programming consultant. Harry was elected to both the Philadelphia (2013) and New Jersey (2015) Radio Broadcasting Hall of Fame. Harry Hurley has also been selected (2015-2018) as one of the Top 100 Most Important Talk Radio Hosts in America by Talkers Magazine. Hurley is also doing national fill-in, on-air talent work for FOX News Radio on their nationally syndicated platforms. He has hosted various programs for local television and is the editor and publisher of his news and information website, www.harryhurley.com. Send comments to HarryHurley@aol.com
