Weather
By Dan Skeldon
Election Day has officially passed. And while the counting still continues in a few corners of the country, the results from our November 2020 South Jersey weather ballot came in almost instantly. And it’s warm weather in a landslide, at least so far this month.
In fact, Mother Nature “elected” to spoil us with a pair of record high temperatures for the first weekend of November. Records just weren’t broken; they were shattered. The standing record high at the Atlantic City International Airport last Saturday and Sunday (November 7th and 8th) was 72 degrees both days. On Saturday, the thermometer surged to 77 degrees at ACY, and we tacked on a few more degrees for a summer-like 79-degree high on Sunday.
Let’s put that in perspective to show just how rare this type of warmth is in November. Our average high for the second week of November is only in the upper 50s, which means we were treated to temperatures some 20 degrees warmer than average. Or how about this? Officially, we’ve only reached the 80-degree mark 5 times in November at ACY, most recently on November 3rd back in 2016. So Sunday was the sixth warmest November day on record in South Jersey. Hopefully, you enjoyed the serene and sun-sational step back to late summer, as it’s likely to be the warmest weather we have left to enjoy in 2020. After all, the days continue to grow shorter, and eventually it will be back to reality as the month progresses.
While the warmth has been certified the winner of this year’s November weather election, we’re certainly not so lucky every November. Take for instance 8 years ago last weekend. A cruel early season nor’easter roared up the coast in early November of 2012, a slap in the face as it struck just a little more than a week after Sandy’s devastating landfall. That storm brought one of the earliest snows on record to the area, blanketing eastern Atlantic County with 2 to 4 inches of a heavy, wet snow on November 7th, 2012. For the record, the earliest measurable snow on record at ACY fell on November 5th, 1973, when a dusting of snow coated the ground.
While October can occasionally bring a rare but strong early season coastal storm, November marks the more common start of the unofficial nor’easter season. Roughly speaking, major east coast storms are most likely each season between November and March. And one of the more memorable November storms stalled off our coast around Veterans Day in 2009. Nicknamed “Nor-Ida”, as it was a combination of a typical ocean storm and the remnants of Hurricane Ida, it sat off the Mid-Atlantic coast for days, battering our barrier islands with endless waves, wind, and rain. Repetitive rounds of moderate to major tidal flooding, a soaking rain, and significant beach erosion resulted from the November gale.
Considering some of these notorious November nor’easters, most of us are likely giving thanks for our recent warm weather fortunes. But in November of 1989, it was snow lovers that were quite thankful. That’s because the second greatest November snow on record blanketed South Jersey with 6 inches of holiday snow on Thanksgiving morning. It’s fairly rare when your white Thanksgiving dreams come true in South Jersey. And let’s not forget that was promptly followed by some bitter cold air, the coldest ever recorded in any November when temperatures plummeted to 10 degrees with the help of the freshly fallen snow.
So from 80-something-degree warmth to frigid arctic cold, November can be a fickle month. Sometimes, the last vestiges of summer can appear. Other years, winter rears its cold and snowy head earlier than many of us would like. But no matter what this November brings, it’s worth noting that it is seldom a harbinger for what the upcoming winter holds in store. So cold and snowy Novembers aren’t a sign to stock up on rock salt or to go buy a new snowblower. Conversely, Novembers that feature record warmth like this one should not lead you to assume that an easy winter is on the way.
Yes unfortunately, the weather pattern that will dictate what type of winter we see has yet to be determined, and depends on a long list of complex and intertwined factors, not one of which is our November weather. But using our current weather pattern as a clue, there is actually some skill in determining what the rest of November may hold in store. And while it’s safe to say that we shouldn’t expect a return of 80-degree warmth again until the spring of 2021, indications are that milder than average temperatures may continue for much of the rest of the month. Any cold shots look to be relatively rare and short-lived over the next three weeks, with a warmer and drier than average pattern holding through Thanksgiving. Let’s see if Mother Nature “elects” for that to happen going forward.
Meteorologist Dan Skeldon has a degree in meteorology from Cornell University. He has forecasted the weather in South Jersey for the last 18 years, first on the former television station NBC40 and then on Longport Media radio. Dan has earned the American Meteorological Society Seal of Approval for Broadcast Meteorologists, and now does television broadcasts on WFMZ-TV in Pennsylvania’s Lehigh Valley.
