Weather
By Dan Skeldon
Well, it’s that time of year. Again. Granted, we didn’t have much of a winter to suffer through. But it still doesn’t diminish the anticipation and excitement of the reward of making it to the unofficial kickoff to summer, the Memorial Day holiday weekend. Yes, the summer season is underway, and with it, the season-long hope that Mother Nature cooperates with any and all outdoor plans. And the general consensus is that cooperation is most vital on the weekends, and especially the “big three.” That would be the three long holiday weekends of the summer, Memorial Day, the Fourth of July, and Labor Day.
With the arrival of the Memorial Day weekend comes the inevitable enhanced scrutiny of beloved or beleaguered meteorologists everywhere. The pressure is on for nice weather, or at the very least, accurate predictions of the not-so-nice weather so that alternative plans can be made.
Ironically, the first big weekend of summer that comes every year in late May is also one of the most fickle ones weather-wise. May weather can be tough to predict by itself, regardless of the overall weather pattern. In part, that’s due to the still cold waters of the Atlantic Ocean, usually sitting around 60 degrees in late May, but sometimes can be stuck somewhere in the 50s. That cold ocean can promote stubborn fog banks that shroud the barrier islands while the mainland soaks up the sun.
And of course any wind off of that near 60-degree ocean can lead to similarly chilly temperatures on the sand, while areas just 10-20 miles inland sweat to some summery 80-something-degree warmth. Then there’s back door fronts, most common in April and May, that can “back” down the coast and conduct a cool sneak attack of sorts, lowering the temperatures by 15-30 degrees as it passes. Or sometimes they stall overhead, for instance let’s say around the Great Egg Harbor Bay, leaving Atlantic County beaches shivering to the 50s while Cape May County beaches soak up the 70s and 80s.
Hurricane season begins on June 1, but especially in recent years, we’ve often had early tropical mischief off the Carolina coast. While not strong, rainfall from these storms can sometimes inch its way up the coast in our direction and lead to some unsettled weather. While we’re at the end of the time when coastal lows (a.k.a. Nor’easters) are possible, we’ve seen one or two wash out an entire Memorial Day weekend in recent years. And let’s not forget that severe thunderstorm season really ramps up in late spring and early summer, putting wind, hail, and heavy rain on the table any given year.
Just look at the last two Memorial Day weekends for an example of the variability. Last year, it was warm and dry throughout, with 80-85 degrees highs all three days. The year before, we were mired in the 50s Saturday and Sunday, which were cool and raw washouts, before salvaging a still cool but better 70-degree drier day on Memorial Day. And then there are the highly changeable Memorial Day weekends, like back in 2018, when we start with a 90-degree day on Saturday, see almost two inches of rain Sunday, then turn sharply cooler with Memorial Day that year stuck in the 60s. If variety is the spice of life, then holiday weekends don’t get any spicier than the first of the three big summer holiday weekends.
But from a weather perspective, Memorial Day is the least reliable one weather-wise, if you’re hoping for warm and dry weather conducive to all of those outdoor plans. Sure, Mother Nature can hit a home run some years, like in 2022, but there are plenty of times she strikes out, given the fickle nature of our May climate here along the Jersey shore.
If you’re a betting man or woman, then the safest holiday weekend bet is always Labor Day in early September. Sure, it’s the peak of hurricane season, and it only takes one storm to make a liar out of this meteorologist. And there’s been Labor Day weekends where even the threat of a storm in 2016 (that never did materialize…thanks Hermine) ruins the end of summer final hurrah. But as long as the tropics are kept in check, which happens most of the time, the warm, dry, not-too-humid weather that is synonymous with early September usually leads to some epic Labor Day weekends weather-wise. And let’s not forget that it’s when our ocean temperatures are usually at their peak, somewhere in the 70s, an added bonus for sure!
What about the Fourth of July? Well, that one is easy. It will be hot. It will be humid. And there will almost certainly be the chance for a few pop-up afternoon or evening thunderstorms that will always threaten some holiday fireworks displays, and lead to some gnashing of teeth of those that plan the big July 4th events. Weekend washouts are difficult to get in early July, although not impossible. But most of the time, you’ll have to contend with the sultry summer muggies while watching the radar app on your phone and ensure that those pesky thunderstorms stay away.
Finally, what about this Memorial Day weekend? Well as I write this the weekend before the big holiday weekend, there’s sure enough a cut-off low forecast to develop and swirl over the Lower Mid-Atlantic, likely throughout the entirety of the holiday weekend. Underneath that low, it will be cloudy, cool, and wet, likely across Virginia and possibly the Delmarva. In the true “fickle” spirit of late May, that low may get stuck to our south and leave us dry. If it does, will we be cloudy but dry or can we sneak in some sun? And could it drift farther north in our direction, bringing some rain into the equation at some point? They say “Cutoff lows leads to meteorologists’ woes”, as they are notoriously tough to forecast. And that’s yet another reason that late May is challenging, both for forecasting and for planning outdoor events.
So as always, time will tell how the holiday weekend weather plays out for us. But if history is any indication, make those Labor Day weekend plans now.
Meteorologist Dan Skeldon has a degree in meteorology from Cornell University. He has forecasted the weather in South Jersey for the last 18 years, first on the former television station NBC40 and then on Longport Media radio. Dan has earned the American Meteorological Society Seal of Approval for Broadcast Meteorologists, and now does television broadcasts on WFMZ-TV in Pennsylvania’s Lehigh Valley.
