Weather
By Dan Skeldon
We’ve now made it more than halfway through “meteorological” winter, which meteorologists define to be the months of December, January, and February. And so far, so good, if you’re not a fan of long-lived shots of arctic air or major winter storms. Let’s look at where we’ve been so far, and speculate a little bit on where we may be going thereafter.
DECEMBER:
We wrapped up 2020 with a relatively mild but rather wet December, but of course, it was all wet and not white with rain and not snow with every storm that passed through. The monthly rainfall at the Atlantic City International Airport was 5.08″, almost an inch-and-a-half above average, thanks in large part to three soaking rains on December 5th, 16-17th, and 24-25th. While there were a few snowflakes, no measurable snow fell, a statistic that has of course become all too common over the past few winters in South Jersey, and covered in recent columns.
Temperature-wise, December averaged about a degree-and-a-half warmer than average, thanks to 8 days with highs into the 50s and 3 days when highs soared past 60 degrees. The only bitter cold day of the month was the day after Christmas, when highs barely made it above the freezing mark.
However, December was a rather breezy month, with oftentimes brisk or even gusty winds, occasionally delivering some warmth and more often making it feel a bit cooler than it actually was. Christmas Day brought the strongest winds, not to mention some soaking rain.
JANUARY
We’ve almost wrapped up January, and it continued some common themes from December. It’s been a warmer than average month, with temperatures over 3 degrees above average for the month as a whole with less than a week to go. We still haven’t had a day this winter with highs below freezing, and we haven’t had any single digit nights either. Winds have been active once again and added a chill on many a day, but with no arctic outbreaks, wind chills haven’t been too much of an issue.
It hasn’t been as stormy of a month however, with rainfall for the month a little below average. And the East Coast has been quiet overall, with no major coastal storms to contend with either. There’s been a few rounds of tidal flooding from time to time, but nothing excessive or unusual for the winter months.
A LOOK AHEAD
Earlier this month, I suggested the pattern would become more favorable for colder and snowier weather. And not that I’m a betting man, but I would have put a small wager on the idea that we’d get some accumulating snow and even a winter storm threat or two during the middle to end of January. Largely, that’s because the pattern up over the North Atlantic is very favorable for promoting cold and snowy stretches into the Northeast and Mid-Atlantic. Unfortunately for snow lovers, other patterns, mostly the flow of mild air from the Pacific Ocean into the United States, squashed most chances for wintry interludes so far in 2021.
I am watching the period right around February 1st, or early next week, for a stronger signal for a storm along the East Coast. Now there’s no guarantee that something forms or it will be snow and not rain even if it does, but the pattern suggests some coastal mischief is possible right around the first few days of February. As always, time will tell.
And February overall is the snowiest month of the winter, at least on average. Ocean temperatures are normally at their coldest, and there has been many a memorable snowstorm during the shortest month of the year. Off the top of my head, there was the President’s Day Blizzard of 2003 and the Super Bowl Weekend Blizzard of 2009, just to name a few. I’d be surprised if we made it through the month without at least one or two opportunities to at least see some measurable snow and break our long snowless streak, regardless of whether or not we see any threats for a bigger storm.
Then of course there’s March as well, which has been surprisingly snowy over the last decade. In the last ten years, we’ve had a snowstorm on St. Patrick’s Day and several snowfalls on the first day of spring. I distinctly remember waiting in line for free Rita’s water ice on March 21st with snow falling down. In many recent years, February and March have been snowier than December and January.
One thing I don’t see for the rest of winter is sustained, bitter cold. The last few winters have avoided any prolonged cold stretches, the last of which occurred in conjunction with our blizzard in early January 2018. While some occasional cold shots are likely as is a February thaw or two, I think temperatures will likely remain a little above average for the rest of winter as a whole.
Meteorologist Dan Skeldon has a degree in meteorology from Cornell University. He has forecasted the weather in South Jersey for the last 18 years, first on the former television station NBC40 and then on Longport Media radio. Dan has earned the American Meteorological Society Seal of Approval for Broadcast Meteorologists, and now does television broadcasts on WFMZ-TV in Pennsylvania’s Lehigh Valley.
