Weather
By Dan Skeldon
Very seldom is Mother Nature exactly in sync with the calendar. But this year was an exception. According to the calendar, fall began at 9:03 p.m. on Thursday, Sept. 22. And it was more or less at that moment that a fall weather pattern took over.
Before the arrival of autumn, we enjoyed a warm end to the summer season. In fact, nine of the last 12 days of summer saw highs climb into the 80s. But with the end of summer came the end of those 80-degree days, with none in our immediate future either.
For fall fanatics, the on-time arrival of cooler and more comfortable temperatures is always welcome, especially in a warming climate. Sure, one more warm surge (usually following the first frost), often known as Indian Summer, is a rite of passage during many falls here in South Jersey. But those that sweated to the persistent heat and humidity from July through early September are loving the “instant” fall this year.
And that instant fall could contribute to earlier fall color this year too. Well actually, the combination of the ongoing drought plus the early season cool may work together for an earlier than normal peak to our annual fall color this autumn. Remember that the drought has actually already caused stress in some tree species, promoting some early season color that popped as early as August. The persistent dryness has even prompted some premature leaf loss throughout South Jersey and the rest of the Northeast.
Trees also naturally respond to the shorter days and less daylight that results this time of year. Starting this week, the nights are now longer than the days, and will remain that way through March. Add in consistently cool weather, especially some crisp and chilly early fall nights, and that’s another cue that trees take to start the color change. Our peak fall color along the shore normally occurs in early November, with the normally cooler spots in the Pinelands peaking in late October. This year, if the cool weather is consistent, the peak might be on the earlier side. But be wary that during a drought, that peak can sometimes be shorter than usual, as trees lose their leaves faster than usual. And some leaf-stripping windy days during that peak foliage can shorten the prime viewing conditions even more. But no matter when the foliage peaks, how vibrant the colors are, and how long it lasts, there is no more picturesque time of year than autumn in the Northeast.
So we’re shooting for peak color around or just before Halloween this year for most. But what about some other fall benchmarks?
First frost: Frost can sometimes sneak up on us as early as late September. But traditionally, it’s usually the first 10 days of October that bring the first frost of the fall season to South Jersey. Remember frosts usually occur with temperatures in the low to mid 30s overnight into the early morning hours.
First freeze: A freeze is when the temperature drops below 32 degrees for a few hours, with the threshold for a “hard” freeze around 28 degrees. At the Atlantic City International Airport, the average first freeze usually occurs in mid to late October, and naturally later closer to the shore due to the moderating influences of the Atlantic Ocean. For the first hard freeze, circle Halloween as the average first date away from the shore.
End of hurricane season: With Fiona striking Puerto Rico and Ian dealing a blow to Florida, hurricane season can’t end soon enough this year, or any year for that matter. Unfortunately, we still have to wait awhile, with November 30th the traditional end of the Atlantic season. For South Jersey, our threat steadily decreases after mid-October. But Sandy reminded us of the benefit of always staying prepared the entire season.
Start of nor’easter season: There’s no official season for coastal storms, so there’s no official start and end dates. But early to mid-October is about the time that strong storms along our coast become possible, and there have been some memorable early season nor’easters that have left their mark. Yes, even as hurricane season winds down, there’s no rest for the weary here in South Jersey.
First snow of the season: No need to worry most autumns about snow, although some rare October snowflakes or November snowfalls are possible on rare occasions. But it’s normally not until early December that we see our first measurable snow of the season, barring any rude early surprises by Mother Nature.
Fall has just begun to stretch its legs. Let’s see what the next few months of the fall season brings. Hopefully, it’s those comfortably mild and sunny days followed by clear and crisp nights that make it my favorite time of the year. But only time will tell.
Meteorologist Dan Skeldon has a degree in meteorology from Cornell University. He has forecasted the weather in South Jersey for the last 18 years, first on the former television station NBC40 and then on Longport Media radio. Dan has earned the American Meteorological Society Seal of Approval for Broadcast Meteorologists, and now does television broadcasts on WFMZ-TV in Pennsylvania’s Lehigh Valley.
