Early look at the Race for the New Jersey General Assembly in District 2
The Dennis Levinson Factor is Pivotal
By HARRY HURLEY Political Columnist
The Hurley Line:
The field for the Republican nomination for the New Jersey General Assembly in District 2 is growing.
Early entrants Atlantic County Freeholders Frank Formica John Risley, along with Somers Point Councilman James Toto got out of the starting blocks fast and haven’t stopped running hard since they announced their candidacies several months ago.
Former Brigantine Mayor Phil Guenther methodically weighed the variables of reentering electoral politics and he has now officially entered the race.
Formica and Guenther are running as a united ticket and they would like the Atlantic County Committee Members to vote for both of them. The voting process requires a majority to win.
Often, one candidate may prevail on the first ballot and it can take several more ballots to select the second nominee.
Risley came excruciatingly close to winning a nomination for this position back in 2007. Former New Jersey Assemblyman Vince Polistina ultimately defeated Risley on the third ballot and went on to win the General Election of 2007 with former Assemblyman John Amodeo; who is now a City Commissioner in Margate.
Polistina served in the New Jersey General Assembly until January 10, 2012. Polistina risked a very safe Assembly seat to run against then State Senator Jim Whelan in the election of 2011 in the state’s most expensive race. More than $ 3 million was spent by Polistina and Whelan.
Current State Senator Chris Brown filled the seat left open by Polistina in the 2011 election. Brown was the top vote-getter and Assemblyman Vince Mazzeo took the second seat, initially defeating then incumbent Amodeo by just 38 votes out of more than 100,000 total votes cast.
Following a month-long formal recount, Mazzeo was officially declared the winner by 51 votes, making it one of the closest legislative races in New Jersey history.
Polistina continues to own and manage his highly successful civil engineering firm, Polistina and Associates.
Regarding the candidacies of Risley and Toto: Initially, Toto believed he and Risley were together as a ticket. Politely, Risley has made it clear that he “respects the independence of the voting process” and that he is running as one person seeking one of the two open nominations.
The composition of the second legislative District is not the same as running at large for an Atlantic County elective office. There are 23 municipalities in Atlantic County. The legislative district is smaller and does not include several towns which are Republican strongholds; Galloway Township and Hammonton to name two.
Here is the composite sketch of the 2nd Legislative DistrictDistrict
New Jersey’s 2nd Legislative District
Senator Chris A. Brown (R)
Assembly members Vince Mazzeo (D)
John Armato (D)
Registration
34.5% Democratic
24.7% Republican
40.2% unaffiliated
Demographics
63.0% White
17.5% Black/African American
0.4% Native American
8.5% Asian
0.0% Hawaiian/Pacific Islander
7.4% Other race
3.3% Two or more races
16.9% Hispanic
Population 234,905
Voting-age population 180,063
Registered voters 141,807
New Jersey’s 2nd Legislative District is one of 40 in the state, covering the Atlantic County municipalities of Absecon City, Atlantic City, Brigantine City, Buena Borough, Buena Vista Township Egg Harbor City, Egg Harbor Township, Folsom Borough, Hamilton Township, Linwood City, Longport Borough, Margate City, Mullica Township, Northfield City, Pleasantville City, Somers Point City
The district has been a changing one for the past decade-plus. By the numbers, it actually favors Democratic candidates. Look at the graph above and you can readily see that there are significantly more registered Democrats (34.5 %) vs. Republicans (24.7 %). And, there are considerably more Unaffiliated voters (40.2 %) then there are Democrats or Republicans.
It’s also interesting and illuminating to look at the demographics of the district. It’s dominantly white in composition (63 %), however, the various minority representation is integral in deciding who the ultimate winners will be.
Also, the Craig Callaway “Vote by Mail” juggernaut is also becoming a significant factor in all County-wide and District races. You cannot overstate the role that Callaway’s organization plays on Primary and General Election Day.
The Atlantic County Republican Convention voting process will also be very important in terms of who wins and loses. Will the various clubs be able to bloc vote? Will they choose to bloc vote? Egg Harbor Township typically bloc votes when there is a “Favorite Son” candidate running. Risley is the only person running who lives in Egg Harbor Township. This and Hamilton Township could prove pivotal for Risley.
Formica and Guenther will employ a Down Beach and the Western Counties alliance to counter Egg Harbor Township.
Also, the Atlantic County Republican Party must enforce its own rules, relative to all candidates who are running for the nomination. The unambiguous rule is already in place that if you run and lose at the Convention … you cannot run in a contested June Primary. It is a sore loser rule.
This sore loser rule formally exists if you run in The June Primary Election, you are not permitted (by state law) to run in the November General Election.
Republicans must be prepared that incumbent Assemblymen Mazzeo and John Armato will have millions of dollars at their disposal. The Republican candidates clearly will not. Republican fundraising capability will be a major factor in Decision 2019.
Between the “Pay to Play” legislation that has dried-up the campaign contributions that used to flow-in freely into the District. This is no longer the case. Anyone who wants to do business in Atlantic County is prevented from making the sizable contributions that they were used to making for decades.
The Republican ticket is very fortunate that Atlantic County Executive Dennis Levinson is on the ballot this year. He is a prodigious fundraiser and the Republican’s top vote-getter. Levinson will be crucial for Republicans both up and down ballot.
The loyal opposition considers Levinson so unbeatable that they have basically given him a free election pass for the past 8 years. It is unknown at this time if the Democrats will make a legitimate run at Levinson this year.
A few months ago, the Democrats paid for a telephone poll to see if Mazzeo or any Democrat can defeat Levinson in November. Mazzeo fared well for his current seat. He did poorly head-to-head vs. Levinson in the survey.
This is Armato’s “Sophomore” election. If past is prologue, the first time a candidate seeks re-election, he is the most vulnerable. Even though Republicans will surely be in the minority in Trenton; Republicans want to get Senator Brown some support in the lower house this year.
This promises to be a most interesting Republican nominating process, as well as the upcoming General Election campaign once the Republican ticket is selected.
It is of paramount importance for Republicans not to burn each other and cash in their nominating process, in order to stand the best chance for success in the November 5, 2019 General Election.
Harry Hurley is the president of Harry Hurley Consulting and Communications, LLC. He hosts the daily talk radio program “Hurley in the Morning” 6-10 a.m., weekdays on Townsquare Media, WPG Talk Radio 104.1 FM & 1450 AM, where he also serves as the senior programming consultant. Harry was elected to both the Philadelphia (2013) and New Jersey (2015) Radio Broadcasting Hall of Fame. Harry Hurley has also been selected (2015-2018) as one of the Top 100 Most Important Talk Radio Hosts in America by Talkers Magazine. Hurley is also doing national fill-in, on-air talent work for FOX News Radio on their nationally syndicated platforms. He has hosted various programs for local television and is the editor and publisher of his news and information website, www.harryhurley.com. Send comments to HarryHurley@aol.com
