Weather
By Dan Skeldon
Whether you love it or hate it, there’s something magical about snow around the holidays. No, I’m not talking about a crippling blizzard that snows us all in and cancels Christmas with families and friends. After all, that’s what Christmas is all about. But a little mood setting, spirit enhancing, picture-postcard-setting snow can make even the heart of any snow-despising grinch grow three sizes on Christmas Day.
Whether it’s Bing or Frank or Perry or Nat, there are many that have unforgettably sung about their white Christmas dreams each and every year. But for those of us in South Jersey, the reality is often something less white and more green and bright, and there’s a better chance of rain and not snow on Christmas at the shore. Yes, Heat Miser and not Snow Miser (for those of you familiar with the quarreling pair from The Year Without a Santa Claus) often controls the weather here in South Town, er, I mean South Jersey. Let’s look back at the ghosts of Christmas’ past, or at least the weather statistics over the last 64 years in South Jersey.
Remember that our climate records are based on the weather at the Atlantic City International Airport (ACY) in Egg Harbor Township since 1958. And let’s also remember that the official definition of a white Christmas is having at least 1” of snow on the ground on Christmas morning. It does not have to actually snow on Christmas Day. And it almost never does.
Our historical chance of a White Christmas since 1958: 6%. Yes, that’s it. So that means there have been only 4 Christmas Days that have been white in South Jersey since 1958, and you can count them on one hand. And that’s why most years, we have to just keep dreaming.
Whitest Christmas: Christmas 1966 had the most snow on the ground on Christmas morning, with 6” of snow on the ground from a storm that occurred just one day prior on Christmas Eve Day. This was the closest we’ve come to waking up to a blanket of freshly fallen snow, like little Ralphie Parker did in the 1983 film A Christmas Story, before he shot his eye out anyway.
Last White Christmas: Christmas 2009 was our only white Christmas this century, with 5” of “leftover” snow on the ground on Christmas morning that year. That snow was leftover from the week before Christmas blizzard back on December 19, 2009, when a foot or more of snow fell across much of the area. While more than half had melted before Christmas Day, and the other half likely became brown, crusty, or even yellow in some cases, it still qualified as our lone white Christmas in the 2000’s.
Most snow actually on Christmas Day: You’re not a cotton headed ninny muggins to think that snow apparently does NOT like to fall on Christmas Day in South Jersey. Winter traditionally begins around December 21st, and every calendar day from December 21st through New Year’s Day has seen at least 1” of new snow at least one year on record. Except Christmas Day that is, which has never seen an inch of fresh snow in South Jersey, at least in the last 64 years. The most snow to actually fall on December 25th was back in 1962, when a whopping 0.8” of snow coated the ground that morning. If Buddy the Elf is right and the best way to spread Christmas cheer is singing loud for all to hear, maybe we all need to start singing “White Christmas” to help our cause. Anyone?
Our chance for a white Christmas in 2022: Remember that our historical chance is 6%. With a long advertised colder than average pattern still likely to set up through the holidays this year, I’ll up it to a 30% chance for South Jersey this year. Now there’s two ways of looking at that number. You could say I’m saying it is 5 times more likely than normal that we’ll see snow for Christmas this year. But then again, since normal is so low, that’s not saying much. So you could also say there’s a 70% chance that we still won’t see snow on the ground come Christmas morning.
Warmest Christmas Day: We were singing Mele Kalikimaka back on December 25, 2015, when the temperature reached a record high of 71 degrees that Christmas. It also came with about an inch of rain, so not green and bright as it was warm and wet. The last two Christmas Days in 2020 and 2021 have also been rather warm and damp, but not quite to the 2015 levels. High temperatures the last two years have been in the low 60s, and both had at least some rainy weather.
Coldest Christmas Day: December 25, 1983 was a Christmas that you hopefully got a new winter jacket, gloves, a scarf, and a hat, and you could make quick use of the entire ensemble. The morning low temperature that day was 2 degrees below zero, and the high temperature only made it up to 10 degrees. It was a holiday spent in the deep freeze for sure! Way to go Cold Miser!
Whatever the weather this Christmas brings, here’s forecasting you the happiest and healthiest of holidays in 2022. And Merry Christmas everyone!
Meteorologist Dan Skeldon has a degree in meteorology from Cornell University. He has forecasted the weather in South Jersey for the last 18 years, first on the former television station NBC40 and then on Longport Media radio. Dan has earned the American Meteorological Society Seal of Approval for Broadcast Meteorologists, and now does television broadcasts on WFMZ-TV in Pennsylvania’s Lehigh Valley.
