District 2 Hurley Analysis: Republican Brown by Wide Margin for Senate; Democrat Mazzeo Leads Assembly Race
By HARRY HURLEY
Political Columnist
The pivotal General Election is a little more than one week away. The race for the Legislative District 2 State Senate seat between New Jersey Assemblyman Chris Brown and his Democratic challenger Colin Bell is not close.
This is despite the release of the unreliable Stockton University poll, which had the race a statistical dead heat a few weeks ago. Respected National pollster, 538’s Nate Silver has rated it a “below average poll,” that “leans in favor of Democrats.”
This same Stockton poll had Congressman Frank LoBiondo leading then challenger William Hughes, Jr. in 2014 by just five percentage points. A few weeks later, LoBiondo won by a massive 61.5 percent to 37.3 percent. It was never close. The poll was biased then. It still is now.
Both the Republican and Democratic internal polls have always shown Brown with a sizable lead. Brown has consistently led by 15-21 points throughout the entire campaign.
Bell has run a poor campaign and he’s lost the last two times he’s been on the ballot (assembly and freeholder). Bell also hasn’t been the recipient of the massive campaign war chest that has routinely flowed into the 2nd District for more than a decade. This is for two reasons. First, the outside money sees Bell as a bad bet. Second, State Senate President Steve Sweeney is facing a tough challenge from Republican Fran Grenier. The LD3 race may become the state’s first-ever $20 million campaign. The New Jersey Education Association has spent more than $4 million to try and unseat Sweeney.
Brown was able to begin his campaign unfettered for more than a month, before Bell got out of the starting blocks. This was invaluable. Brown and an independent outside group tagged Bell for forming a predatory tax lien business in the district. It has driven Bell’s negatives sky high. Bell formed the business during the Great Recession at the height of the home foreclosure crisis. Atlantic County has had the highest home foreclosure rate in America.
Bell was asking up to 18 percent interest, or, he could potentially take someone’s home from them; all while asking for their vote at the same time. It has taken root as unseemly and incompatible with being qualified for elective public service.
Brown is the candidate straight from central casting. A decorated combat war hero, (2nd Lieutenant) who has earned The Bronze Star Medal and Combat Infantryman Badge for his honorable service in the ground offensive in Iraq.
Brown’s private sector and governmental experience is extensive. He owns and operates his own law firm. He has served as a Municipal Solicitor, Judge and Prosecutor. Brown won his seat in the New Jersey Legislature in the election of 2011 and has won re-election in 2013 and 2015.
Bell served one term on the Atlantic County Board of Chosen Freeholders, the recipient of the wave election of 2012, when former President Barack Obama performed very well in Atlantic County. Bell was defeated three years later in his re-election bid.
Bell works for a highly respected local law firm of Hankin, Sandman, Palladino and Weintrob. Bell’s practice areas are commercial and civil litigation. He has been with the firm since 2008.
Regarding the coined “Hurley Like Ability Quotient,” Brown trounces Bell in this critical category regarding the voters liking one candidate over the other.
On Tuesday, Nov. 7 every indicator points to Brown becoming the Senator-elect from Atlantic County’s 2nd District.
Assemblyman Vince Mazzeo, D-2, holds a commanding lead in my view for one of the two assembly seats. Mazzeo has won a seat in the elections of 2013 and 2015. Previously, Mazzeo served as Mayor of Northfield from 2008 through 2013 and Councilman from 2003-2007.
Mazzeo is a part owner and operator of his Family’s long-standing grocery store.
Despite consistently voting and working against the district (North Jersey Casino ballot question for example), Mazzeo remains both likable and popular. It defies political gravity and all common sense, but it remains true.
A strong Phil Murphy and Mazzeo performance could deliver his running mate, Buena Vista Township Committeeman John Armato to victory for the second assembly seat.
The Democrat campaign strategy has been to completely ignore Republican challenger Brenda Taube; while aggressively going after Brigantine Councilman Vince Sera. They are trying to disqualify Sera, which would leave Armato standing.
The Democrats are trying to tag Sera as a “Republican Boss.” It’s such a stretch, that it’s laughable. However, low information voters, who have been bombarded by television and radio commercials making this charge against Sera; you never know what actually sticks during a campaign season.
Taube is a very hard-working former Margate City Commissioner. She deserves better than this campaign has offered her. When four or more candidates are running for two seats, the election voting math is always very challenging. It typically turns into a “popularity contest” versus who is the most qualified.
Finally, the Craig Callaway factor cannot be overstated. As of Oct. 5, there was more than 6,000 vote-by-mail ballots requested. The Callaway organization has led a well-organized effort.
They have been physically transporting such a large number of voters to the Atlantic County Clerk’s Office in Mays Landing, that Clerk Ed McGettigan had to institute a special procedure, whereby he has utilized the middle court room as a staging area for voters to request their mail-in ballots.
The Callaways have perfected this system and they have turned Atlantic County into an early voting “state.” I predict that the Callaways’ effort will deliver a state senator, assemblyman, the mayor and three city councilman-at-large seats in Atlantic City.
Very soon, all the talking will be over, and the voters will make their will known.
Harry Hurley is the president of Harry Hurley Consulting and Communications, LLC. He hosts the daily talk radio program “Hurley in the Morning” 6-10 a.m., weekdays on Townsquare Media, WPG Talk Radio 104.1 FM & 1450 AM, where he also serves as the senior programming consultant. Harry was elected to both the Philadelphia (2014) and New Jersey (2015) Radio Broadcasting Hall of Fame. He has hosted various programs for local television and is the editor and publisher of his news and information website, www.harryhurley.com. Send comments to HarryHurley@aol.com
