By Bill Quain
This is the first of a three-part series of articles about “Changing Your Odds” in life. While it’s NOT about learning to win big money at a casino, the lessons I’ll give you in this series do come from my time as a Casino Executive/Consultant, in both Las Vegas and Atlantic City. In this week’s column, I’ll start with some background information. In the next two weeks, you’ll see how it applies to your personal life, and how it can make you a consistent winner – no matter which game you play!
Which Game Has the Best Odds?
As soon as I mention “odds,” the first question people ask me is “Which game has the best odds?” So let’s get it off the table (so to speak) right now. But remember, my casino career was in the 1980’s. Back then, I focused on three Table Games – Blackjack, Roulette, and Craps. Each of these games had one thing in common – there were good bets, and there were bad bets. For example, Craps had absolutely the best odds in the house for the players – but only if you stuck with the Pass and Don’t Pass lines. As soon as you started making those middle-of-the-table bets, your odds of winning nosedived. Roulette was the same way, with lots of people betting on “Odd/Even,” resulting in another nice bonus for the casino execs at the end of the year! But Blackjack, that game worried us, because it was the easiest game to be good at. But even there, a player with an education, someone who knew the odds and could pace himself/herself, was our worst player, and by “worst player,” I mean that we beat them less often than normal.
Beat Them Less Often Than Normal?
Yes, I meant what I just wrote! Even with our most competent Blackjack players, we (the house) still had the odds in our favor. We’d do almost anything to keep you at the table, especially if you were winning, because we knew a big Secret about odds – over time, the odds will prevail! We’d buy you dinner, comp you a suite, give you tickets for a show – whatever, just so you would play longer. You see, if the odds are set against you, the longer you play, the more probability there is that you will lose.
Odds and Probabilities – A Coin Toss
In a coin toss, there is a 50/50 chance that the coin will be either heads or tails. But, in any series of tosses, you can end up with one side far more often than the other. But even if the last ten tosses were heads, the probability that the next toss would be tails is still only 50%. So, if you are trying to identify a pattern, there isn’t one. No matter how many times a toss comes up heads, it is still just as likely that it will be heads again, on the very next toss. But, over time, you can expect the 50/50 split.
So, if a casino game is set so the odds are against you, even a little bit against you, over time, you’ll never win. On the other hand, you can have a great night. For a gambler, that’s all you need, every now and then, in order to keep you coming back. But guess what? If you keep on coming back, we’ll all get our bonuses at the end of the year, because over time, we always win.
Your Life Is not A Casino Game
Fortunately for you, your life is not a casino game, with pre-determined odds. However, there are people out there who are always trying to beat you, or take your money. They are trying to get you to play their games, where they have set the odds against you. But that doesn’t mean that their odds need to be your odds. Every day, for whatever you do, you can make small changes to the odds that bring BIG changes to the probabilities that you will succeed. But, in order to win these games, you need to be dedicated, smart, consistent and involved.
Play Life Like The “Long Game”
Take this advice from a former casino exec – If the odds are against you, play less. If the odds are in your favor, never stop playing! In the next few weeks, I’m going to reveal some odd-setting tactics that will put the odds in your favor. Once you put them into motion, keep on playing. Look, you’re not going to win every time, but over time you’ll always win! That’s a big secret – and one that almost no one knows.
Don’t Become A “Big Score Loser”
I’ve watched gamblers who do well at the casino table. Instead of quitting while they are ahead they press their luck, and wham! Most of the time, they end up losing it all. Don’t go looking for the Big Score. Instead, work hard to get the odds in your favor, and keep your head – and your money. Remember, even great odds don’t mean that you’ll be successful each and every time. You are going to have losing days. Just don’t put so much at risk that you don’t have enough in reserve to keep playing. Over time, if you play it right, you’ll be a winner – probably. But, if you bet it all, you’ll eventually be a Big Loser, and you won’t have enough to get back into the game.
I’m Betting That You’ll Want More
Hey, stay with me for the next few weeks. You’ll probably get a kick out of the next few columns. In the meantime, shoot me an email at bill@quain.com. I’d love to hear from you. And, as I say each week, I’ll see ya in the papers!
Bill is a Professor in Stockton University’s Hospitality Management Program. He is the author of 27 books, and a highly-respected speaker. Even though he is almost totally blind, Bill is a long-distance runner and runs the Ocean City Half Marathon each year. He lives in Ocean City with his wife Jeanne, and his Guide Dog Trudy. Visit www.billquain.com or email him at bill@quain.com.
