Weather
By Dan Skeldon
No shade, no shine,
no butterflies, no bees,
No fruits, no flowers,
no leaves, no birds! –
November! -Thomas Hood
Yes, the poet Thomas Hood said it best. “NO”-vember is usually a colder, cloudier late autumn month synonymous with bareness and absence as we progress closer to winter.
But not every November.
Sure, the sun sets before 5pm now that we’re back on Eastern Standard Time. But other than the early darkness that resulted from the time change earlier this month, there’s not much bad that can be said about the first half of November 2022.
Through the first 13 days of the month, it easily takes the top spot as the warmest November on record “so far”. Seven of those days saw highs of at least 70 degrees. More impressively, November 7 delivered 80-something-degree record warmth to South Jersey, and also the second latest 80°+ day on record at the Atlantic City International Airport in Egg Harbor Township.
But what goes up inevitably must come back down. And our temperatures are in the process of doing that between now and at least Thanksgiving. Colder than average temperatures are expected for the foreseeable future, likely evening the score and erasing the warm anomalies that we started the month with. It’s a pattern that has delivered early snows pretty far south, from Oklahoma to Kentucky, and additional chances for snow are certainly possible, though not immediately likely.
But as we trade our short-sleeve shirts for some heavier jackets and close the sunroof in the car and make sure the ice scraper is in the trunk, here’s a few winter weather wanderings as the season approaches:
- It’s no secret I don’t believe in long range forecasts for the winter. But I do like to look ahead month-to-month. And I do like the “chances” for early season cold and perhaps the chance for a winter storm or two between Thanksgiving and Christmas. Of course, I’m forever dreaming of a white Christmas myself. And in South Jersey, I usually keep dreaming.
- Looking back to last winter, it was a relatively quiet and fairly snow-less one (a lack of big storms) across most of Pennsylvania, Delaware, and New Jersey. The one exception: our little corner of the Garden State, which got not one but two “South Jersey specials”. Those are storms that just hit South Jersey, and miss striking the normally snowier areas to our north and west. And those two storms weren’t just moderate snowfalls, they each brought blizzard conditions and over a foot of snow to the shore.
- I challenge you to find one winter forecast that predicted anything close to what happened last year: Blizzards and above average snow in South Jersey, with below average snow farther north and west. You won’t…which is why I like to predict one seven day forecast or even one storm at a time.
- Remember that what happens early in the winter season does not necessarily portend what type of winter it is going to be. An early season snowstorm doesn’t necessarily mean a bad winter is on the way. Likewise, unseasonably warm temperatures through Christmas doesn’t mean we’ll escape without a winter either. Patterns can sometimes sustain themselves through an entire winter, or flip and flop back and forth through the winter months. Every winter is different.
- A friendly reminder that only The Weather Channel names winter storms. I’m among those that don’t like their implementation of this practice, mostly for ratings purposes. And I never use them as a meteorologist, perhaps with the rare exception of “Jonas” since it took hold locally. But I do think that naming winter storms (and nor’easters) could be useful, if done by a government agency with a strict set of criteria and universally accepted, like hurricane naming.
- Back in the early 2000’s, December 5 had a certain snowy aura to it, and was a magnet for early season, moderate snowfalls. Just a coincidence. But as that white Christmas dreamer, I’d love to see December 23 (a Festivus miracle for you “Seinfeld” fans) be that next coincidental snowy date, and up our chances for snow on the ground at Christmas. Historically, our chances are pretty small for a white Christmas, say around 7 percent.
- White Thanksgivings are even more rare, but Thanksgiving 1989 brought plenty of cold and snow to the Northeast on Thanksgiving Day. And a bitterly cold (but not snowy) Christmas followed.
- Historically, February is our snowiest month of the winter. But March has gained steam over the last few decades with some historic late season snows.
- Hurricane season officially ends November 30th, and with the remnants of Nicole last week, it’s been a long season we’ll thankfully see come to an end. Of course, Ian was the defining storm of 2022, with Fiona and Nicole also packing significant punches.
- There is no “official” nor’easter season, but we can generally see coastal storms from mid-October through mid-April, with a rare one in May as well. November through March is the heart of the season for coastal storms.
- I have a brand new snowblower ahead of this winter. Either that will be the kiss of death for this snow-loving weatherman or perhaps it portends a snowy winter ahead. I guess time will tell.
- If all this talk of winter is depressing, here’s a consolation countdown: We’re less than 125 days until the first day of spring. Think spring!
Meteorologist Dan Skeldon has a degree in meteorology from Cornell University. He has forecasted the weather in South Jersey for the last 18 years, first on the former television station NBC40 and then on Longport Media radio. Dan has earned the American Meteorological Society Seal of Approval for Broadcast Meteorologists, and now does television broadcasts on WFMZ-TV in Pennsylvania’s Lehigh Valley.
